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With shifting interest rates, dynamic occupier fundamentals and deepening bifurcation within sectors, ISA Outlook 2024 asks how real estate investors should respond to rapidly changing market conditions. To answer these questions and more, we published four separate chapters covering the global and regional outlooks over the course of November and December.
Download the full document now, or individual chapters covering the Global, European, North American and Asia Pacific outlooks are available in the tabs below.
Chapters
The global macroeconomic context for real estate remains unsettled, and more so than earlier in 2023. Until late summer, interest rates in most major markets exhibited high volatility, but little overall trend. They moved mainly sideways, owing to cooling inflation and expectations that central banks were reaching the end of their tightening cycles. This was helpful in setting a pricing baseline for real estate investors. But the outlook for rates and thus real estate pricing has become more unsettled of late.
What does this mean for real estate and how does it intersect with other key trends?
Authors
Brian KlinksiekGlobal Head of Research and Strategy
Eduardo GorabManaging Director, Global Research and Strategy
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European property markets have been waiting for a peak in European Central Bank and Bank of England policy rates, for an end to the war in Ukraine and for bid-ask pricing spreads to resolve. Investors ready to move out of waiting mode in 2024 can benefit from rebased prices, opportunities to solve capital stack equations, and strong fundamentals in many sectors.
In this chapter of ISA Outlook 2024, we examine the state of the European market and conclude with recommendations for specific investment strategies – underpinned by realism and targeted toward areas of forecast resilient income growth.
Authors
Daniel MahoneyEurope Head of Research and Strategy
Petra BlazkovaEurope Head of Core and Core-plus Research and Strategy
Dominic Silman, PhDEurope Head of Debt and Value-add Capital Research and Strategy
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Against a volatile macroeconomic backdrop and with growth expected to slow, we believe that in 2024 it will be the trajectory of interest rates that will have the greatest impact on real estate values in the US and Canada.
As investors continue to adapt to cooler conditions, this chapter of ISA Outlook 2024 examines the current landscape and looks ahead to the coming year, including where we see select opportunities emerging, as well as variation between the two markets. We conclude with three broad strategic themes and recommended strategies where investors may consider deploying their capital.
Authors
Richard KleinmanAmericas Head of Research and Strategy
Chris LangstaffCanada Head of Research and Strategy
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The sheer size and complexity of the Asia Pacific region means real estate markets and investment opportunities are as diverse as the region itself.
In the final chapter of ISA Outlook 2024, we discuss this complexity and how China’s new economies – such as high-tech manufacturing and biotechnology – are growing rapidly and, after more than two decades, Japan is hoping to bid sayōnara to deflation. In other key parts of the region – Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea – central banks are near the end of their rate-hiking campaigns in a bid to lower inflation which, as in the rest of the world, could lead to a rebound in transaction activity.
Authors
Fred Tang, PhDChina Head of Research and Strategy
Dennis WongSenior Strategist, Asia Pacific Research and Strategy
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Published every year since 1993, LaSalle’s annual ISA Outlook is designed to help our clients and partners navigate the year ahead. It brings together smart perspectives and investment ideas from our teams around the world, based on what we see across our more than 1,500 assets that span geographies, property types and risk profiles.
As always, we welcome your feedback. If you have any questions, comments or would like to learn more, please get in touch by using our Contact Us page.
