Singapore (December 12, 2024) – Asia Pacific macroeconomies and real estate markets are showing signs of potential structural changes and unique cyclical patterns, setting the region apart from global trends.
This is the thrust of the Asia Pacific chapter of ISA Outlook 2025 report just released by LaSalle Investment Management (“LaSalle”). Published every year since 1993, LaSalle’s ISA Outlook is designed to help the real estate industry navigate the year ahead.
This year’s key findings include:
Where favorable macroeconomic conditions present themselves and as global investment appetite returns, the diversity of Asia Pacific markets and sectors within the region will offer discerning investors a variety of opportunities with a wide range of risk-return profiles.
Five strategic themes are highlighted in the Asia Pacific ISA Outlook 2025:
The multi-family sector in Asia Pacific is undergoing structural changes, driven primarily by demographic shifts and government policies, with significant potential for institutionalization. This sector offers a range of investment opportunities in a basket of markets except China, although it would take time to fully unlock value in this nascent sector outside of Japan due to unproven liquidity.
Office market performance across Asia Pacific varies significantly. It is increasingly important to consider the timing of entry and exit as well as risk mitigation plans. South Korean, Japanese and Singaporean offices offer strategically selected investment opportunities for investors with different risk and return appetites.
The logistics sector shows dispersion in performance across markets, submarkets and sub-sectors. With relatively balanced supply-demand dynamics, Australia, Singapore and select Japanese markets offer investment opportunities, despite reducing return expectations.
We expect that well-managed retail assets that have adapted their tenant mixes and market positioning in response to changing consumption habits will outperform, adding to operational intensity. A granular, asset-level approach to investment is crucial, given the performance variations across markets and sub-sectors.
The Japanese hotel market is set to continue its growth trajectory, driven primarily by domestic demand and, to a lesser extent, inbound tourists. However, the performance is expected to vary across markets and segments, influenced by the operational capability to navigate challenges such as labor shortages and rising labor costs.
Looking ahead, investors in Asia Pacific real estate must navigate a complex environment marked by structural changes and atypical market cycles.
Elysia Tse, Asia Pacific Head of Research and Strategy at LaSalle, commented: “There are many unknowns in the current complex economic climate, compounded by impending changes in Trump 2.0, which will likely lead to periodic episodes of capital market volatility. Investment strategies that favor domestic tenant demand and domestic capital, as well as those that focus on operational intensity, such as deal execution and in-house leasing, are important for value creation and preservation. In the event of significant dislocation or capital market volatility, investors could seek attractive entry points or creative, structured solutions to address capital stack issues for some troubled property owners or developers.”
Brian Klinksiek, Global Head of Research and Strategy at LaSalle, added: “As we enter 2025, we’re seeing the dawn of a new real estate cycle. While challenges remain, particularly in resolving legacy capital stack issues, we’re observing improving capital market conditions and emerging opportunities across a wide range of sectors and geographies. Investors who recognize these shifts early and act with flexibility are likely to benefit from attractive risk-adjusted returns. However, it’s crucial to remain vigilant about risks on the horizon and avoid the expectation of a rapid return to ultra-low interest rates.”
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About LaSalle Investment Management | Investing Today. For Tomorrow.
LaSalle Investment Management is one of the world’s leading real estate investment managers. On a global basis, LaSalle manages US$88.2 billion of assets in private and public real estate equity and debt investments as of Q3 2024. LaSalle’s diverse client base includes public and private pension funds, insurance companies, governments, corporations, endowments and private individuals from across the globe. LaSalle sponsors a complete range of investment vehicles, including separate accounts, open- and closed-end funds, public securities and entity-level investments.
For more information, please visit www.lasalle.com, and LinkedIn.
NOTE: This information discussed above is based on the market analysis and expectations of LaSalle and should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding LaSalle funds or any issuer or security in particular. The information presented herein is for illustrative and educational purposes and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy in any jurisdiction where prohibited by law or where contrary to local law or regulation. Any such offer to invest, if made, will only be made to certain qualified investors by means of a private placement memorandum or applicable offering document and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations. Past performance is not indicative of future results, nor should any statements herein be construed as a prediction or guarantee of future results.
Chicago (December 4, 2024) – US and Canadian real estate is on the verge of a new cycle in 2025, with interest rates down from peak levels and economic growth concerns fading, but also new risks on the horizon, according to the North America chapter of the ISA Outlook 2025 report published by global real estate investment manager LaSalle Investment Management (“LaSalle”).
The landscape for US and Canadian real estate has shifted since last year’s ISA Outlook 2024, which saw lower transaction volumes due to higher interest rates and challenging macroeconomic conditions. LaSalle sees considerable differences between this upcoming cycle and prior ones across both countries. Specifically, interest rates are expected to remain higher, which will lead to a more moderate pace of value recovery. And while the pace of capital flows to real estate is expected to pick-up in 2025, conditions across real estate sectors and markets will remain uneven.
These differences suggest that investing into the coming real estate cycle will not be a simple story of a “rising tide lifts all boats”; selectivity at the sector, market and sub-market level is likely to add value. LaSalle’s ISA Outlook 2025 follows several main themes that will influence real estate decision-making within the US and Canada, as well as sector by sector analysis of different property types:
Global and North American Property Sector Outlooks
The North America chapter of the ISA forms part of LaSalle’s Global ISA Outlook 2025, which analyzes real estate trends across geographies and sectors, and similarly finds the new cycle extends to global real estate markets.
Richard Kleinman, LaSalle’s Americas Head of Research and Strategy, said: “We are on the cusp of a new real estate cycle both globally and in the Americas specifically. That said, navigating the current environment will require selectivity at the sector, market, and submarket levels. The ISA Outlook 2025 research we’ve released today looks in depth at what is driving trends in North American real estate, and lays out our strategy for the year ahead.”
Chris Langstaff, Head of Research and Strategy for Canada at LaSalle, commented: “Our outlook for Canadian real estate next year resembles many of our global projections, with some important distinctions. Optimism is a bit more contained as economic performance has lagged and there’s been uncertainty around trade policies, but favourable demographics, healthy fundamentals in most sectors and forecasts for improved GDP and job growth in 2025 and 2026 will continue to drive opportunities across markets, including in specialty sectors.”
Brian Klinksiek, Global Head of Research and Strategy at LaSalle, added: “Global real estate sentiment is gradually improving following a long period of negativity and signs are pointing to the beginning of a new real estate cycle. History has shown that investing early in a cycle tends to lead to relatively strong performance. There are still risks on the horizon, however, and investors are advised to focus on diversified strategies that are flexible and broad enough to adapt to a complex and evolving relative value landscape. A comprehensive look at value across a wide range of sectors and markets will be required to build a well-positioned real estate portfolio.”
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About LaSalle Investment Management | Investing Today. For Tomorrow.
LaSalle Investment Management is one of the world’s leading real estate investment managers. On a global basis, LaSalle manages US$88.2 billion of assets in private and public real estate equity and debt investments as of Q3 2024. LaSalle’s diverse client base includes public and private pension funds, insurance companies, governments, corporations, endowments and private individuals from across the globe. LaSalle sponsors a complete range of investment vehicles, including separate accounts, open- and closed-end funds, public securities and entity-level investments.
For more information, please visit www.lasalle.com, and LinkedIn.
NOTE: This information discussed above is based on the market analysis and expectations of LaSalle and should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding LaSalle funds or any issuer or security in particular. The information presented herein is for illustrative and educational purposes and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy in any jurisdiction where prohibited by law or where contrary to local law or regulation. Any such offer to invest, if made, will only be made to certain qualified investors by means of a private placement memorandum or applicable offering document and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations. Past performance is not indicative of future results, nor should any statements herein be construed as a prediction or guarantee of future results.
London (November 27, 2024) –Europe’s real estate cycle has reached a new dawn, following a deep capital market correction over recent years, according to the European chapter of the ISA Outlook 2025 report published by global real estate investment manager LaSalle Investment Management (“LaSalle”).
Last year’s ISA Outlook described the beginning of adjustment to the new reality of higher interest rates and challenging macroeconomic conditions. As we approach a new year, the latest ISA Outlook describes how market evidence is crossing thresholds that point to a new cycle. For example, data tracked by LaSalle’s asset managers show, from January 2024 to date, rents for new commercial leases across LaSalle’s European portfolio grew 2.7% relative to expiring passing rent, representing a return to an above-inflation pace.
LaSalle estimates that expected go-forward returns for the overall European property market are at their highest level in a decade. As capital slowly returns to the market and yield spreads exceed long-term averages, the real estate outlook has diverged from the region’s weak pace of economic growth due to a combination of supply barriers and asset quality polarisation.
This year’s report identifies strategic themes for investment in European real estate, which earn the region’s real estate assets an important place in investors’ property portfolios.
Beyond beds and sheds
A laser focus on “beds and sheds” has become a market consensus portfolio theme for many real estate investors, yet it is now becoming too simplistic to capture the more complex dynamics of the market.
Today’s ISA Outlook 2025 report uses fair value analysis to zero in on the best opportunities across a range of real estate capital and debt strategies and asset classes. These span all property types – not for the sake of diversification – but because we believe there are specific compelling opportunities that span across property types.
The European chapter of ISA Outlook 2025’s five strategic themes:
Global uncertainty but clear opportunities
The European ISA Outlook forms part of LaSalle’s Global ISA Outlook, which finds that the new dawn extends across real estate around the world.
Greater clarity on the direction of interest rates around the world should help drive healing of the capital markets in 2025, with hesitant sellers gaining confidence as pricing starts to come in closer to their expectations.
There have, of course, been significant political developments in the US in recent weeks. The Global ISA Outlook reflects on how the “Red Sweep” may affect the real estate investment outlook and the shape of the dawning cycle, with signals pointing towards marginally higher growth, inflation and rates, but no great change in the overall outlook. LaSalle expects that the US economy remains on track for a soft landing. Equally, the European ISA Outlook considers the potential impact of the US Election in Europe, recognising that a stronger dollar could result in a possible boost in student demand for housing and tourist demand for hotel rooms.
The Global ISA Outlook also identifies areas of concern, with China a significant ‘soft spot’ due to a combination of generationally low growth and liquidity alongside weak property fundamentals. The Chinese government has made significant interventions to shore up the economy, and in recent weeks further stimulus has been implemented to guard against the potential onset of US tariffs on Chinese goods. These factors mean that China is something of a unique case in the ISA Outlook, with less applicability of global trends. Similarly, the Japanese market is experiencing a different cycle to the rest of the world. Japan is in the process of exiting a long period of deflationary risk and rock-bottom rates, so unlike other countries, monetary policy in Japan has a modest tightening bias.
Dan Mahoney, Head of European Research and Strategy at LaSalle, said: “We are seeing a new cycle dawning for Europe’s real estate markets. Today’s Europe ISA Outlook delves into why we believe we are entering a new cycle, evidence of data thresholds crossed, and our strategy for the years ahead. These go beyond simple ‘beds and sheds’ – which is too simplistic to capture the complexity of European real estate today.”
Brian Klinksiek, Global Head of Research and Strategy at LaSalle, added: “Global real estate sentiment is gradually improving following a long period of negativity and signs are pointing to the beginning of a new real estate cycle. History has shown that investing early in a cycle tends to lead to relatively strong performance. There are, however, still risks on the horizon, and investors are advised to focus on diversified strategies that are flexible and broad enough to adapt to a complex and evolving relative value landscape. A comprehensive look at value across a wide range of sectors and markets will be required to build a well-positioned real estate portfolio.”
Ends
About LaSalle Investment Management | Investing Today. For Tomorrow.
LaSalle Investment Management is one of the world’s leading real estate investment managers. On a global basis, LaSalle manages US$88.2 billion of assets in private and public real estate equity and debt investments as of Q3 2024. LaSalle’s diverse client base includes public and private pension funds, insurance companies, governments, corporations, endowments and private individuals from across the globe. LaSalle sponsors a complete range of investment vehicles, including separate accounts, open- and closed-end funds, public securities and entity-level investments.
For more information, please visit www.lasalle.com, and LinkedIn.
NOTE: This information discussed above is based on the market analysis and expectations of LaSalle and should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding LaSalle funds or any issuer or security in particular. The information presented herein is for illustrative and educational purposes and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy in any jurisdiction where prohibited by law or where contrary to local law or regulation. Any such offer to invest, if made, will only be made to certain qualified investors by means of a private placement memorandum or applicable offering document and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations. Past performance is not indicative of future results, nor should any statements herein be construed as a prediction or guarantee of future results.
On November 19, 2024, LaSalle hosted a client webinar to discuss the outlook for listed real estate. LaSalle Global Solutions Chief Investment Officer Matt Sgrizzi offered a recap of our recent ISA Briefing: A new “golden era” for REITs and real estate? and took questions from clients in attendance.
This publication does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or any interests in any investment products advised by, or the advisory services of, LaSalle Investment Management (together with its global investment advisory affiliates, “LaSalle”). This publication has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of recipients and under no circumstances is this publication on its own intended to be, or serve as, investment advice. The discussions set forth in this publication are intended for informational purposes only, do not constitute investment advice and are subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice. Further, nothing herein constitutes legal or tax advice. Prior to making any investment, an investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to independently evaluate the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
LaSalle has taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is accurate and has been obtained from reliable sources. Any opinions, forecasts, projections or other statements that are made in this publication are forward-looking statements. Although LaSalle believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, LaSalle does not make any express or implied representation or warranty, and no responsibility is accepted with respect to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the facts, opinions, estimates, forecasts, or other information set out in this publication or any further information, written or oral notice, or other document at any time supplied in connection with this publication. LaSalle does not undertake and is under no obligation to update or keep current the information or content contained in this publication for future events. LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication and nothing contained herein shall be relied upon as a promise or guarantee regarding any future events or performance.
By accepting receipt of this publication, the recipient agrees not to distribute, offer or sell this publication or copies of it and agrees not to make use of the publication other than for its own general information purposes.
Copyright © LaSalle Investment Management 2024. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically, mechanically or otherwise howsoever, including without limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without prior written permission of LaSalle Investment Management.
This article first appeared in the November 2024 edition of IREI Americas (subscription required).
Senior real estate credit specialists from LaSalle discuss the rising significance of senior real estate mortgage credit in investment portfolios with Institutional Real Estate Investor. They explore its ability to provide steady income and downside protection, the growing role of alternative lenders, and the current market opportunity. The article examines how this strategy offers attractive risk-adjusted returns, portfolio diversification, and enhanced resilience in today’s dynamic economic environment.
This article first appeared in IREI Newsline.
As traditional lenders step back, the real estate debt market is opening up new avenues for institutional investors. In a recent Q&A with IREI, LaSalle’s Jen Wichmann, Senior Strategist and SVP of Research and Strategy, discusses the evolving landscape of real estate debt investments. From long-term trends and current market opportunities to the benefits of stable cash flow and downside protection, Wichmann provides insights into the sector.
Last year, we released the inaugural edition of LaSalle’s ISA Portfolio View, where we discussed the art and science of portfolio construction and why it matters most when market conditions change suddenly. That was certainly true at the time of last year’s release and remains so today.
In this year’s edition, we cover the five foundational concepts of portfolio management below, and how they should be considered alongside an investor’s objectives and values to devise a strategy for their portfolio.
Why real estate lays out the case for property exposure in a multi-asset context? 
Why global considers the benefits of expanding horizons beyond an investor’s domestic market? 
Why be sector smart tries to make sense of the recent changes in relative sector performance with an eye to building resilient portfolios? 
Why be quadrant smart addresses the interplay among the “four quadrants” of real estate? 
Why manage risk explores the importance of—and our approach to—managing investment risk? For 2024, we have also updated ISA Portfolio View to include the most recent available data, and added new sections on:
The speed and unpredictability of market changes over the last few years highlights the importance of not only planning ahead by thinking carefully about how to create real estate portfolios that can be expected to be resilient, but also working with an asset-class expert who understands the nuances presented by real estate.
Important Notice and Disclaimer
This publication does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or any interests in any investment products advised by, or the advisory services of, LaSalle Investment Management (together with its global investment advisory affiliates, “LaSalle”). This publication has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of recipients and under no circumstances is this publication on its own intended to be, or serve as, investment advice. The discussions set forth in this publication are intended for informational purposes only, do not constitute investment advice and are subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice. Further, nothing herein constitutes legal or tax advice. Prior to making any investment, an investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to independently evaluate the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
LaSalle has taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is accurate and has been obtained from reliable sources. Any opinions, forecasts, projections or other statements that are made in this publication are forward-looking statements. Although LaSalle believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, LaSalle does not make any express or implied representation or warranty, and no responsibility is accepted with respect to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the facts, opinions, estimates, forecasts, or other information set out in this publication or any further information, written or oral notice, or other document at any time supplied in connection with this publication. LaSalle does not undertake and is under no obligation to update or keep current the information or content contained in this publication for future events. LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication and nothing contained herein shall be relied upon as a promise or guarantee regarding any future events or performance.
By accepting receipt of this publication, the recipient agrees not to distribute, offer or sell this publication or copies of it and agrees not to make use of the publication other than for its own general information purposes.
Copyright © LaSalle Investment Management 2024. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically, mechanically or otherwise howsoever, including without limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without prior written permission of LaSalle Investment Management.
This article first appeared in the Fall 2024 edition of NAREIM Dialogues.
LaSalle’s Julie Manning writes about our latest report with ULI that provides an industry-wide framework for commercial real estate to address how physical climate risk data can be used in decision-making and supporting investment performance.
Using data to evaluate physical climate risk
Measuring physical climate risk is of growing importance to institutional real estate managers and their investors, at both the individual property and portfolio levels. Of the $850 billion of commercial real estate assets tracked by NPI, LaSalle estimates $285 billion, or 34%, is situated in high and medium-high climate risk zones in the US.
Increasingly, being able to assess an asset’s risk exposure, and knowing how to price that risk into management strategies, are essential parts of operating a portfolio. While data is key to this assessment, understanding how to leverage the right data is even more important. With so much climate risk data available in the market, how can organizations manage and find data that gives them manageable, impactful and usable insights? And more importantly, what should managers do with these insights?
Listed real estate investment trusts (REITs) have faced a tough two and a half years, driven by the rapid tightening of financial conditions (see LaSalle Macro Quarterly, or LMQ, pg. 13). Sentiment towards REITs has been weighed down not only by the higher interest rate environment, but also by constrained bank lending, a barrage of negative headlines about commercial real estate and REIT underperformance relative to the broader equity market. But, as the saying goes, it’s often darkest before the dawn.
The modern REIT period has seen three “golden eras” of REIT investing (see chart below).1 These have been characterized by either a dramatic growth in the REIT market or outsized investment returns versus other asset classes, or both. The Savings and Loan (S&L) crisis spurred what is often considered the birth of the modern REIT era in the mid-1990s. During this period, the number of REITs increased by nearly 50%, while the market cap of that group grew nearly seven-fold. Following the Dot-com bubble, a period where REITs had been significantly out of favor, the REIT market endured a multi-year run of strong absolute performance in which it cumulatively outperformed broader equity markets by more than 300%. The period following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) saw the rise of dynamic new property sectors in the public market, and another period of outperformance in which REITs led broader equities by 50%.
While each golden era was unique, our analysis finds that each period was preceded by challenging circumstances with four common elements (see LMQ pg. 14). These are:
Recent history, marked by a post-pandemic recovery followed swiftly by the Great Tightening Cycle (GTC), presents important similarities to these historical periods of severe market challenges. For instance, real estate bank lending is dislocated. An AI-driven tech frenzy and fears of a generalized “commercial” real estate malaise mean REITs have underperformed compared to equities (see LMQ pg. 22). Meanwhile, signs of an easing or stabilization in financial conditions and a potential global monetary easing cycle are becoming more apparent (see LMQ pgs. 9, 10 and 30).
While history does not repeat itself, it does often rhyme. The presence of those elements in today’s market environment, and the potential for those concerns to flip to opportunities, may foretell the next REIT golden era. We discuss each of these factors in turn.
Challenged real estate lending represents an opportunity for REITs. The past two to three years have been characterized by a significant retrenchment in bank lending to real estate. According to the US Senior Loan Officer Survey (see LMQ pg. 16), the net balance between demand for loans and banks’ willingness to lend points to the widest undersupply of credit in the past ten years, except for during the depths of COVID-19. The shortage is evident in all styles of borrowing, from riskier construction loans to mortgages backed by traditional, defensive apartment assets.
This circumstance presents an opportunity for REITs given their strong financial positions and access to the capital markets. Having learned a painful lesson from the GFC, global REITs went into the GTC with their lowest leverage levels on record (see LMQ pg. 16), and nearly 90% of their debt on fixed rates and an average remaining term of seven years.2 Looking specifically at the US market, the overwhelming majority of REIT borrowing – nearly 80% – is from the unsecured market, at rates that are today almost 100 bps lower than a traditional mortgage. This relative advantage in both access and cost of capital positions REITs to potentially play the role of aggregator and to take market share.
“Commercial” real estate negativity is office-focused, but all real estate is not office. Headlines proclaiming the demise of commercial real estate usually involve a misleading generalization. Professionally managed, income-producing real estate generally should not be conflated with office specifically. It is well known that hybrid work and other factors have harmed office values. Office fundamentals are expected to remain relatively weak,3 with the sector’s growth outlook trailing nearly all other REITs globally. Office landlords will likely need to invest capital aggressively to maintain competitiveness.
These challenging office sector dynamics have unfairly cast a shadow over the broader real estate and REIT universe. In reality, office has over time become a smaller portion of the real estate landscape, especially in the public market; as of the date of this paper, only about 6% of global REITs by market capitalization are office focused (see LMQ pg. 20).4 The public market now offers a diverse sector menu comprising a wide range of dynamic sectors. These include industrial and logistics; forms of rental residential including multi- and single-family rental, manufactured housing and student housing; various formats of healthcare property; and exposure to tech-related real estate in the form of data centers and cell towers. Sectors other than office comprise the overwhelming majority of the public REIT market,5 and many of those sectors have growth outlooks that are forecast to produce earnings growth that is in line with or better than broader equities.6 That growth outlook is underpinned by a combination of secular demand drivers and declining supply levels, the other side of the higher interest rate coin.7
Media coverage naturally tends to focus on the national and trans-national arenas, but local political developments can be especially impactful for real estate investments. Such issues can fly under the radar, especially given many of the most relevant ones are only of interest to a specialist audience. For example, changes in policy around topics like the planning process, property taxes and transfer taxes (a.k.a. stamp duty) can have direct, measurable and immediate impacts on property cash flows and thus values. The distraction of the bright shiny lights of global geopolitics should not be allowed to excessively overshadow the critical local issues that impact real estate.
Underperformance may set the stage for a return to outperformance. The negativity around lending or financing concerns and the “death of office” have weighed on both the absolute and relative performance of REITs. The chart below shows the rolling one-year relative performance differential between REITs and equities; it indicates that REIT underperformance has reached its typical peak historical level before starting to reverse. Periods of underperformance have historically tended to reverse, and this instance is likely no different; indeed, the performance gap is already narrowing.
The start of a global monetary easing cycle. Real estate is a capital-intensive business that exhibits significant sensitivity to changes in financial conditions, an observation that holds for both directions of interest rate change. The downside of this dynamic was evident for much of 2022 and 2023, but the upside is likely coming into play. A global monetary easing cycle is now decidedly underway, heralded by the Fed’s 50 bps rate cut on September 18 (see LMQ pg. 31). REITs have generally performed well in periods leading up to and following a central bank easing cycle, as the chart below shows.
Over the past 25 years, REITs have produced total returns of 8% per annum, with 4-5 percentage points of that return coming from income. LaSalle’s base case underwriting for the next three years is for the REIT market to produce total returns of 9%, slightly above historical averages, with roughly four percentage points of that coming from income. That base case forecast incorporates today’s fundamental outlook and interest rate levels. Should any further easing in financial conditions occur, even only in the amount of 50 bps or 100 bps, those return expectations increase to 13% and 18% per annum, respectively, in line with previous “golden eras.”
Footnotes
1 This analysis based on LaSalle Securities analysis of historical macroeconomic, capital market and listed market trends. Source for the REIT performance data cited below are the FTSE Nareit indices.
2 Source for debt pricing comments in this paragraph: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Green Street Advisors, company financial releases, company research and market analysis conducted by LaSalle Securities.
3 There is considerable global variation in office performance, and there are certainly exceptions to this generalization, especially in select Asia-Pacific markets and the higher end of the European office quality spectrum. For more discussion of global office trends, see our ISA Outlook 2024 Mid-Year Update.
4 Source: LaSalle Securities. Percent of companies classified as office focused within the global listed universe defined as the constituents of the S&P Developed REIT, FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed and Nareit All Equity Indices. Sector classifications determined by LaSalle Securities.
5 As measured by market capitalization. Source: LaSalle Securities. Global listed universe defined by the constituents of the S&P Developed REIT, FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed and Nareit All Equity Indices. Sector classifications determined by LaSalle Securities.
6 As based on LaSalle Securities proprietary modelling and consensus earnings forecasts for the Bloomberg World Index, a proxy for broader equity markets.
7 Higher interest rates mean development proformas use higher exit yield assumptions and more expensive development finance. When interest rates are high, all else being equal, the rents required to justify development are higher.
8 Based on proprietary internal LaSalle Investment Management modeling of securities returns. There is no guarantee that such forecasted returns, or any other returns referred afterwards, will materialize.
This publication does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or any interests in any investment products advised by, or the advisory services of, LaSalle Investment Management (together with its global investment advisory affiliates, “LaSalle”). This publication has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of recipients and under no circumstances is this publication on its own intended to be, or serve as, investment advice. The discussions set forth in this publication are intended for informational purposes only, do not constitute investment advice and are subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice. Further, nothing herein constitutes legal or tax advice. Prior to making any investment, an investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to independently evaluate the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
LaSalle has taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is accurate and has been obtained from reliable sources. Any opinions, forecasts, projections or other statements that are made in this publication are forward-looking statements. Although LaSalle believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, LaSalle does not make any express or implied representation or warranty, and no responsibility is accepted with respect to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the facts, opinions, estimates, forecasts, or other information set out in this publication or any further information, written or oral notice, or other document at any time supplied in connection with this publication. LaSalle does not undertake and is under no obligation to update or keep current the information or content contained in this publication for future events. LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication and nothing contained herein shall be relied upon as a promise or guarantee regarding any future events or performance.
By accepting receipt of this publication, the recipient agrees not to distribute, offer or sell this publication or copies of it and agrees not to make use of the publication other than for its own general information purposes.
Copyright © LaSalle Investment Management 2024. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically, mechanically or otherwise howsoever, including without limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without prior written permission of LaSalle Investment Management.
While traditional banks’ appetite for providing commercial real estate loans has declined, other lenders (including investment management firms such as LaSalle) have moved in to fill the funding gap. As a result, we have recently seen increasing interest from institutional investors in real estate debt.
But what is it about real estate debt that makes it a compelling investment? As the second largest of the “four quadrants” of real estate, it has a value in the US and Europe alone of approximately US $4.5 trillion, representing an enormous opportunity. Real estate debt historically has produced competitive risk-adjusted returns in addition to showing low correlation to other assets.
In our latest research, we examine the three-part case for investment, including:
Important notice and disclaimer
This publication does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or any interests in any investment products advised by, or the advisory services of, LaSalle Investment Management (together with its global investment advisory affiliates, “LaSalle”). This publication has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of recipients and under no circumstances is this publication on its own intended to be, or serve as, investment advice. The discussions set forth in this publication are intended for informational purposes only, do not constitute investment advice and are subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice. Further, nothing herein constitutes legal or tax advice. Prior to making any investment, an investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to independently evaluate the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
LaSalle has taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is accurate and has been obtained from reliable sources. Any opinions, forecasts, projections or other statements that are made in this publication are forward-looking statements. Although LaSalle believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, LaSalle does not make any express or implied representation or warranty, and no responsibility is accepted with respect to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the facts, opinions, estimates, forecasts, or other information set out in this publication or any further information, written or oral notice, or other document at any time supplied in connection with this publication. LaSalle does not undertake and is under no obligation to update or keep current the information or content contained in this publication for future events. LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication and nothing contained herein shall be relied upon as a promise or guarantee regarding any future events or performance.
By accepting receipt of this publication, the recipient agrees not to distribute, offer or sell this publication or copies of it and agrees not to make use of the publication other than for its own general information purposes.
Copyright © LaSalle Investment Management 2024. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically, mechanically or otherwise howsoever, including without limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without prior written permission of LaSalle Investment Management.
“You take the blue pill—the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill… all I’m offering is the truth.”
– Morpheus to Neo, The Matrix (1999)
We published the global chapter of the ISA Outlook 2024 on November 14, 2023, just before euphoria about a potential ‘V’-shaped property market turnaround emerged. Interest rates fell quickly as financial markets priced in several US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in 2024. For a time, it looked as though our prediction that it would take a little longer for markets to digest a renewed spike in rates would not age well.
In this Mid-Year Update, however, we look back to find an outlook with an uncanny resemblance to that of six months ago. This is not because nothing has changed, but because the mood has gone full circle. The landscape remains characterized by interest rate volatility, soft fundamentals in some markets, and gaping quality divides, but also by pockets of considerable strength. Another factor that has not changed is that financial conditions (i.e., interest rates) remain the dominant driver of the market, and that political and geopolitical uncertainties are in focus in many countries (see LaSalle Macro Quarterly, or LMQ, pages 4-6).1
In this report, we discuss five themes we see driving real estate markets for the rest of 2024 and beyond. At our European Investor Summit in May, our colleague Dan Mahoney argued that—like Neo in the Matrix—we should take the red pill and endeavor to see the market as it is, not as we’d like it to be. Taking the red pill requires a realistic view on property values. It reveals as unlikely a return to an environment of ultra-low interest rates or uniformly benign fundamentals in the “winning” sectors.
But it does not mean that there will not be attractive investment opportunities. Unlike the bleak dystopia of The Matrix, there are many reasons for optimism, as well as signs that the coming months will come to be seen as a favorable investment vintage. That said, investing successfully will require a balance of big-picture perspective and granular discernment, and a mix of patience and willingness to take risk.
Over the past year, we likened the interest rate path in most markets to a strenuous mountain trek: the relentless climb (2022), the range-bound altitude of an alpine ridge line (H1 2023), the unexpected upward turn in the trail (Q3 2023), and the mountain meadow of cooling inflation and expected rate cuts (Q1 2024). More recently, there have been upward turns in the interest rates trail whenever there have been signs of sticky inflation in the US and other key countries.
One thing is for sure: No map exists for this trail. While interest rates have big consequences for real estate capital markets, they are extremely difficult to predict. We continue to caution investors against overconfidence in their ability to forecast the path of long-term interest rates.
Mercifully, falling rates are not a necessary condition for a robust recovery in real estate transaction activity. Despite interest rates remaining elevated, property markets are already showing signs of finding their footing, such as renewed US CMBS issuance and resilient deal volumes in many markets and sectors.2 A key reason for this is that wherever interest rates have spiked over the past two and half years, especially Europe and North America,3 real estate prices have by now adjusted downward significantly. The relativities between expected returns for real estate and those for other asset classes now look more appropriate than they have in many months; in other words, more of the market is at or near fair value.4
That said, while lower rates are not necessary for real estate capital market normalization, greater stability in rates than we have been seeing would no doubt help. Interest rate volatility is the enemy of a smoothly functioning private real estate transaction market. Excessive movement in borrowing costs during due diligence periods can lead to dropped deals and re-trades. Moreover, when rates are volatile, the conclusions of fair value models are also volatile, impacting both buyers’ and sellers’ assessments of appropriate pricing. Looking at recent trends in the MOVE index,5,6 interest rate volatility appears to be gradually easing but is still elevated relative to recent history (see LMQ page 13).
Increasing stability in rates is welcome, but for now it is reasonable to expect continued strains in real estate capital markets that create both challenges and opportunities. Such conditions can represent favorable entry points for debt investors (lenders), distressed equity players and core investors seeking entry points below replacement
Over the past half-year, interest rates have been increasingly influenced by widening divergences between near-term growth, inflation and monetary and fiscal policy outlooks. Most notably, the bond yield gap between the US and other markets, especially the eurozone, has widened. US growth and inflation have surprised on the upside, in the face of softening or stability elsewhere. Markets currently expect only one Fed rate cut in 2024, down from up to four earlier in the year.7 Meanwhile, in early June the Bank of Canada became the first G7 central bank to cut rates since the great tightening cycle began, with the European Central Bank (ECB) following shortly after (see LMQ page 7).
Regional groupings can obscure divergences within them. The key driver of eurozone softness is Germany (see LMQ page 23), owing to its reliance on manufacturing exports and past dependance on Russian energy. Meanwhile, the Spanish economy remains strong due to healthy consumption and tourism. Within North America, Canada’s economy is underperforming the US because the structure of its residential mortgage market makes it more exposed to higher rates.8 These intra-regional variations may have a range of impacts on property markets, for example by shifting the relative short-term prospects for demand and value.
Japan and China represent long-standing divergences that persist.9 In China, a loosening bias remains in effect as inflation hovers at around 0%.10 In Japan, monetary policy is gradually normalizing, but so far without triggering a big increase in interest rates (at least compared to elsewhere). In March, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) abandoned negative interest rates and ended most unorthodox monetary policies, though it has since held policy interest rates at around zero. Japan’s economy becoming more “normal” is generally a positive, but interest rate differentials have pushed the yen to a 34-year low against the US dollar (see LMQ page 14), creating upside risks to inflation.11 But notably, Japan remains the one major global market in which real estate leverage remains broadly accretive to going-in yields.
Aside from reinforcing the potential benefits of diversification, what do these divergences mean for investors? Mechanically, any unexpected relative softening of interest rates should, all else equal, be beneficial for relative value assessments of real estate in that market. But firmer rates in the US have predictably come alongside a stronger US dollar. This points to practical limits to global monetary policy divergences; central bankers are keenly aware that weaker currencies come with inflationary risks. Moreover, it is worth asking how persistent macro divergences will be; current divergences are rooted in timing differences of expected rate cuts, rather than an anticipated permanent disconnect.
For several years, secular themes and structural shocks have dominated the trajectories of global property markets. But there is a clear cyclical pattern reemerging in the form of a pronounced upswing in vacancy across global logistics markets, and in US apartments. The return of cyclicality in those favored sectors is having significant impacts on their near-term prospects.
The softening trend is not new. In the ISA Outlook 2024, we identified hot sectors “coming off the boil.” Part of this was down to normalizing demand levels, but elevated new supply was also a key driver. As expected, the softening we observed has continued to deepen, leading to outright rent declines in certain markets, especially for apartments in US sunbelt metros.
Softening fundamentals are not to be ignored, but we recommend investors to have the conviction to “ride the wave” of excess supply. Wide variation in supply levels at the market and submarket level means that investors with granular market data and the discipline to incorporate it into their market targeting processes should be positioned to select the most attractive markets and submarkets.
Moreover, the forces that create cycles sow the seeds of their own reversal; we expect the current supply wave to moderate soon, as evidenced by sharply falling construction starts (see LMQ page 25). Many of the projects being completed today broke ground when credible exit cap rate assumptions were several hundred basis points lower than today. Higher interest rates upended development economics; far fewer new developments can now be justified on today’s mix of land prices, construction costs and financial conditions.
Finally, investors should be prepared to think about cash flows in both real and nominal terms. When cooling nominal rental growth comes alongside cooling inflation, as it does today, it is possible for that to be consistent with solid real rental growth, depending on the relative magnitude of each.
Beyond the reassertion of supply cycles in some markets, there is an evolving mix of secular stories that deserve attention. Some of these are so long-standing that they could almost be considered constants. These include structural shortages of housing in most of Europe, Canada and Australia, as well as the widespread changing definition of core real estate in favor of more operational niche sectors and sub-types.12 We continue to be strong advocates for investment in undersupplied living sectors, and for participating in the institutionalization and growth of niche sub-sectors such as single-family rental (SFR) and industrial outdoor storage (IOS).
More dynamic themes that deserve a closer look include the stabilization of retail real estate and divergent office investment prospects:
Other key secular themes driving investment opportunities today include the implications of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption for data center demand, student mobility for student accommodation in Europe and Australia and aging for senior housing.
Past experience of real estate cycles suggests that the best investment opportunities tend to arise in periods marked by significant uncertainty, volatility and pessimism, but also when early signs of improvement and stabilization are present—in other words, moments similar to today’s environment. Experience also reinforces that it is nearly impossible to time the market, so it is best to be selectively active throughout the cycle. By the time the “all clear” signal is sounded after a market crisis, it is too late to achieve the best risk-adjusted returns.
That said, “red pill” thinking means we must recognize that the coming capital market rebound is unlikely to be as sharp as it was after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), given that central banks are unlikely to usher in ultra-loose policy. Seeing the market as it is requires accepting the likelihood that interest rates could remain sticky, and a realistic view of near-term fundamentals as a wave of supply impacts some sectors.
Footnotes
1 Also see our ISA Briefing, “Elections everywhere, all at once: Geopolitics and risk”, April 2024. In that note, we highlighted the various sources of political uncertainty this year and outlined how we recommend investors consider these risks. At the time of writing, political developments are particularly salient for short-term movements markets in France and the UK, given elections that have been called in those countries.
2 Source: MSCI Real Capital Analytics and Trepp
3 Japan and China are key exceptions that we cover in greater depth under the “deciphering divergence” header.
4 Of course, there is considerable variation embedded in this and any assessment of fair value. As always, the devil is in the detail on the assumptions that go into expected and required returns; at LaSalle, specific fair value inputs and conclusions remain a proprietary output.
5 The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) is a market-implied measure of volatility in the market for US Treasuries. It calculates options prices to reflect the expectations of market participants on future volatility. Observation made as of June 24, 2024.
6 Source: Bloomberg as of June 26, 2024.
7 For more discussion of the Canada-US divergence and the consequences of mortgage rate resets, see our ISA Briefing, ”The impact of residential mortgage resets”.
8 For more detailed discussion of the unique factors in the Japanese and Chinese macro environment, see our ISA Briefing, “Key economic questions for China and Japan”.
9 Source: Oxford Economics; Gavekal Dragonomics as of June 26, 2024.
10 Economic theory suggest that weak currency may contribute to inflationary forces because it pushes up the cost of imported goods.
11 See our PREA Quarterly article on “The Changing Definition of Core Real Estate” for a discussion of how the characteristics considered desirable in core properties is moving from traditional metrics like lease length, to observed qualities like the stability of cash flows. This shift elevates the appeal of niche sectors sub-sectors versus traditional sectors such as conventional office.
12 See our ISA Focus report “Revisiting the future of office”, published March 2023.
Important notice and disclaimer
This publication does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or any interests in any investment products advised by, or the advisory services of, LaSalle Investment Management (together with its global investment advisory affiliates, “LaSalle”). This publication has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of recipients and under no circumstances is this publication on its own intended to be, or serve as, investment advice. The discussions set forth in this publication are intended for informational purposes only, do not constitute investment advice and are subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice. Further, nothing herein constitutes legal or tax advice. Prior to making any investment, an investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to independently evaluate the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
LaSalle has taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is accurate and has been obtained from reliable sources. Any opinions, forecasts, projections or other statements that are made in this publication are forward-looking statements. Although LaSalle believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, LaSalle does not make any express or implied representation or warranty, and no responsibility is accepted with respect to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the facts, opinions, estimates, forecasts, or other information set out in this publication or any further information, written or oral notice, or other document at any time supplied in connection with this publication. LaSalle does not undertake and is under no obligation to update or keep current the information or content contained in this publication for future events. LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication and nothing contained herein shall be relied upon as a promise or guarantee regarding any future events or performance.
By accepting receipt of this publication, the recipient agrees not to distribute, offer or sell this publication or copies of it and agrees not to make use of the publication other than for its own general information purposes.
Copyright © LaSalle Investment Management 2024. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically, mechanically or otherwise howsoever, including without limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without prior written permission of LaSalle Investment Management.
In 2024 to date, European markets have pivoted through inflection points on interest rates, economic growth, and property capital markets – which we graph and unpeel in our latest LaSalle European Market View chartbook.
Cyclical shifts are interacting with geopolitical risks in 2024 – from trade headwinds to energy and migration demographics – to create volatility and to shape changes in Europe’s occupier demand and investor risk appetite, all as the region stands on the cusp of an unexpectedly active summer election season.
We cover the latest real estate market trends in 2024 to date. Particularly notable is how a combination of moderating inflation and resilient fundamentals has led to an improvement in real – after inflation – market rent growth, even as nominal rent change has come off the boil.
This article first appeared in the May 2024 edition of PERE
Kunihiko Okumura, LaSalle’s Japan CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer for Asia Pacific, speaks with PERE about why Japan continues to be an attractive market.
Looking up: Investors stay positive at the end of an era
The return of steady inflation to Japan will put pressure on asset management skills, but there are opportunities across the board, says LaSalle’s Kunihiko Okumura
In an interview with PERE for its 2024 Japan report, Kunihiko Okumura, LaSalle’s Japan CEO and Co-CIO for Asia Pacific, shared his outlook on the market, including the impact of Japan’s interest rate hike and opportunities across various sectors such as office, multifamily and logistics.
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Recognition has grown substantially in recent years that climate risk can shape real estate investment outcomes. This owes to an increasing frequency and severity of loss events,1 surging insurance premiums,2 improving data availability and a mounting reporting burden driven by regulations.3 Investors have had to move quickly from acquiring basic climate risk literacy, to sourcing good quality climate risk data, to most recently, leveraging that data into improved investment decisions. There is a clear and rising likelihood that investors on the lagging edge of this process may underperform.
At LaSalle, we have sought to share insights from our own climate risk journey, combining that with broader analysis of our industry’s climate risk challenges and opportunities. In 2022, we partnered with the Urban Land Institute (ULI) on a report, How to choose, use, and better understand climate-risk analytics, which addressed the difficulties in selecting and evaluating climate data from an ever-changing and increasingly crowded—and sometimes contradictory—data provider landscape. In April, we released a new report with ULI, Physical Climate Risks and Underwriting Practices in Assets in Portfolios, which looks at how investors are taking these data and seeking to make better-informed buying, selling and portfolio construction decisions based on them.
While the joint ULI report takes an industry-wide view, this ISA Briefing looks at the topic through the lens of LaSalle’s own investment process. We present three case studies of our evaluation of climate risk on a regional, market and asset-level scale. These examples – one each from each of our global investment regions – illuminate how we are taking account of climate risk and lay out our views on issues investors should be thinking about.
In 2023, the US recorded 28 weather/climate disaster events for which losses exceeded $1 billion, the highest recorded number of distinct events exceeding that threshold.4 But of course, these events were not uniformly distributed across the country. To better understand the geographic predisposition of parts of the country to these hazards, LaSalle’s US Research and Strategy team developed two separate climate risk indexes, evaluating current and future climate risk. The indexes encompass a range of climate hazards, such as heatwaves, floods and wildfires, with earthquakes added as a non-climate threat. The current climate risk index harnesses machine learning to scrutinize hyper-local data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Meanwhile, the future climate risk projections rely on data from the Rhodium Group data set, as analyzed by ProPublica and assuming an RCP 8.5 scenario.5
Looking at climate risk at a regional scale has been useful in several ways. First, it can accelerate analysis of new opportunities by acting as a “yellow flag,” directing resources early in the underwriting process toward deeper analysis into asset-specific climate risk issues that may turn out to be red flags. Second, regional climate risk can be integrated into market-targeting tools, weighing it alongside other factors that influence real estate performance (for example, demographic variables such as population growth and real estate variables like the prospects for rental growth). To this end, LaSalle has embedded these climate risks scores into our proprietary Target Market Analyses (TMAs). Thirdly, it can help frame inquiry into how metro-level performance factors, such as migration patterns, can interact with climate risk over time.
On that last point, the map appears to beg a question about recent migration trends that have favored the Sunbelt.6 Are people disproportionally moving to at-risk places, and if so, why? An important follow-on question that is germane for investment strategy is whether climate change may eventually cause a reversal of recently observed migration patterns. Indeed, we do observe a discernible, moderately positive correlation7 (+29%) between climate risk exposure and increased migration over the past five years. This pattern holds, and even intensifies, when considering population growth projections for the next five years (+47% correlation).8
The implication is that regions facing severe climate challenges continue to draw new residents. This suggests that environmental risks may not yet be so widely recognized as to shape behavior. That said, a mere 8% of market value within the NCREIF Property Index’s (NPI) apartment asset base is situated in markets we classify as high-risk.9 This suggests the impact in the near-term on institutional real estate investors will be limited, at least until climate change is severe enough to routinely impact markets in the next less risky band, which encompasses 16% of total NPI apartment value.10 Either way, investors looking to the long-term would be wise to consider how people will respond to growing climate hazards in high-risk markets. If a major reaction is that Sunbelt denizens relocate back to the Rustbelt, that could have significant implications for regional economic growth and real estate market prospects.
Below the regional level, it is at the scale of an individual metro area where different degrees of exposure to climate risk can be evaluated with more granularity. It is often at this level where both in-place and planned efforts to mitigate the potential impacts of climate hazards can be identified. As we discussed in our 2022 ULI report, such measures can confound traditional climate risk data if they ignore its impact.
For example, when overlaying LaSalle’s global portfolio with raw data from our climate risk providers, Amsterdam and its broader ‘Randstad’ region stand out as especially exposed to sea-level rise. Not considering any protective infrastructure, we estimate that 52% of Amsterdam and 38% of Rotterdam commercial property would have a significant exposure to severe flood.11
Thankfully, the Dutch have been building dams and levees to protect their low landmass from flooding for centuries.12 Modern infrastructure investment accelerated in the wake of the 1953 North Sea flood – a combination of a severe European windstorm and high spring tide that caused the sea to flood land up to 5.6 meters above mean sea level.13 The ‘Deltawerken’ (Delta Works), now complete, consists of a set of storm surge barriers, locks and dams mainly located in the south of the country. But the Dutch flood defense program extends beyond the Delta Works,14 encompassing almost 1,500 constructed barriers, including more than 20,000 kilometers of dikes, enough to encircle the country over 15 times. In fact, the Delta Works program has evolved into the Delta Programme, a continuous project that take future effects of climate change into account, with a target of 100% of the Dutch population protected by floods not exceeding a 1 in 100,000-year event by 2050.15
The presence of these flood defense programs is of imperative importance when considering the Dutch markets for investments. We find that many climate risk data providers do not adjust for the Netherlands’ formidable stock of anti-flood infrastructure investment which mitigates much of the risk. Investors who act as uncritical “takers” of unadjusted climate risk stats may thus excessively underweight the Dutch market.
Below the regional and market level, the asset level is where the outcomes of climate hazards have the most direct impact on a building’s structural integrity or the ability to access and operate a property. An asset manager’s actions can directly influence a building’s capacity to withstand climate-related hazards. This tends to be the most impactful when such interventions are made during the design phase of the development.
For example, take the case of a LaSalle logistics development in Osaka, Japan, a city that has historically been vulnerable to flooding due to its geographical location, with much of the urban area made up of flat lowlands that make natural drainage a challenge in the event of tsunamis and heavy rainfall.16 The local city planning assesses the maximum level water could rise above sea level by submarket in the event of a flood. The flood height varies by location while considering additional factors such as the city’s infrastructure (i.e., floodgates and seawalls) and the overall elevation of the submarket. In the case of one of LaSalle’s Osaka Bay logistics developments, the subject warehouse is at a site where water levels could rise to three meters above sea level in the case of a flood.17
Seawalls, ranging in height from 5.7-7.2 meters protect the asset from extreme floods coming from the sea. To further mitigate the flood risk in the case of extreme rainfall or failure of the sea walls, the warehouse is designed with an elevated floor plate that puts the ground level 1.4 meters above mean sea level, and places key building equipment on the second floor, minimizing potential damage to the asset in the event of flood. This effort resulted in a 4.4 meter clearance above sea level (i.e., sea level + 1.4 meter buffer + 3 meters = 4.4 meters), which is above the required 3.5 meters above sea level (i.e., sea level + 1.4 meter buffer + 2.05 meters = 3.45 meters) for the location. In addition, the property management team has been trained and equipped to minimize flood damage on the first floor by closing the doors and shutters and placing sandbags in any gaps. By incorporating considerations to mitigate flood risk when designing the warehouse, the asset is well positioned to support tenants’ business continuity plans in the event of a flood.
Footnotes
1 Source: National Centres for Environmental Information of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). See Billion Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters
2 Source: The Climbing Costs to Insure US Commercial Real Estate, MSCI, November, 29 2023
3 The TCFD framework which has now been absorbed by IFRS’ ISSB, serves as the framework with which other international reporting standards setters seek to align such as the US SEC who voted in favour of The enhancement and standardization of climate-related disclosure, or the UK Government and the Sustainability Standards Board of Japan who will align its disclosure standards with ISSB.
4 According to the National Centers for Environment Information (NCEI). $1 billion threshold adjusted for inflation in historical periods. See https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/.
5 RCP refers to Representative Concentration Pathway, a standard for modeling future climate scenarios of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. RCP 8.5 represents an extreme case scenario. See this Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) glossary for more detail.
6 For more discussion on this trend, see our recent ISA Briefing, US migration trends and (U)rbanization.
7 Cross-sectional correlation between the LaSalle current climate risk index and the population change in the top 45 US metro areas between December 2018 and December 2023.
8 Cross-sectional correlation between the LaSalle future climate risk index and population change in the top 45 US metro areas between December 2023 and December 2028 based on Moody’s forecast as of February 2024.
9 Source: LaSalle analysis of data from NCREIF, FEMA.
10 Source: LaSalle analysis of data from NCREIF, FEMA.
11 Source: LaSalle analysis of MSCI data.
12 Source: The Dutch experience in flood management: A history of institutional learning
13 Source: The devastating storm of 1953, The History Press
14 Source: Dutch primary flood defenses, Nationaal Georegister
15 See Delta Programme 2024
16 See Osaka city – Flood disaster prevention map outline from the Osaka City Office of Emergency Management.
17 Estimates of maximum flood depth are based on historical records of natural disasters such as earthquakes, river floods and tsunamis that have occurred as reported by Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Tourism.
18 A superficial view of markets is that transactions are based on agreement on value. More accurately, buyers and sellers agree on a price, but their willingness to transact is based on disagreement on value. A seller, for example, may have a less bullish view on NOI growth prospects than a buyer. We expect the same disagreement on climate-related risk/reward trade-offs to be increasingly important.
This publication does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or any interests in any investment products advised by, or the advisory services of, LaSalle Investment Management (together with its global investment advisory affiliates, “LaSalle”). This publication has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of recipients and under no circumstances is this publication on its own intended to be, or serve as, investment advice. The discussions set forth in this publication are intended for informational purposes only, do not constitute investment advice and are subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice. Further, nothing herein constitutes legal or tax advice. Prior to making any investment, an investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to independently evaluate the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
LaSalle has taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is accurate and has been obtained from reliable sources. Any opinions, forecasts, projections or other statements that are made in this publication are forward-looking statements. Although LaSalle believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, LaSalle does not make any express or implied representation or warranty, and no responsibility is accepted with respect to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the facts, opinions, estimates, forecasts, or other information set out in this publication or any further information, written or oral notice, or other document at any time supplied in connection with this publication. LaSalle does not undertake and is under no obligation to update or keep current the information or content contained in this publication for future events. LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication and nothing contained herein shall be relied upon as a promise or guarantee regarding any future events or performance.
By accepting receipt of this publication, the recipient agrees not to distribute, offer or sell this publication or copies of it and agrees not to make use of the publication other than for its own general information purposes.
Copyright © LaSalle Investment Management 2024. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically, mechanically or otherwise howsoever, including without limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without prior written permission of LaSalle Investment Management.
Roughly 60% of the world’s population lives in countries facing major elections in 2024, markets representing 65% of the institutional investable real estate universe.1 Elections are, of course, the cornerstone of the democratic process, which in turn underpins the appeal of the most transparent, investable markets; that said, elections come with the possibility of policy changes that may impact returns. Today’s geopolitical risks, whether they be this continuing election super-cycle (see LaSalle Macro Quarterly, or LMQ, page 4), or the various ongoing conflicts and trade disruptions, prompt important questions about how to manage investment risks related to these themes.
One of the protagonists in the Oscar-winning film Everything Everywhere All at Once says that being “’right’ is a small box invented by people who are afraid.” LaSalle’s risk management philosophy emphasizes optimizing risk/return trade-offs rather than minimizing risk-taking, while recognizing the limitations of point-estimate predictions and base-case scenarios — that is, attempts at “being right.” Today’s geopolitical events are especially likely to confound any forecaster seeking to be exactly right.
How should an investor manage their assets in the context of “unknowables” about which engaging in guesswork is tempting, but being “right” is elusive? What frameworks do we have to mitigate geopolitical risks? We propose six recommendations to keep in mind for investors taking stock of the many elections, and several conflicts, that may impact markets in 2024.
There are many examples of ex ante predictions of elections’ investment implications having been overstated. For instance, leading up to the 2016 US presidential election, there were widespread predictions that the US economy would be significantly negatively impacted by Donald Trump’s anti-immigration and protectionist stance were he elected.2 In the event, equity markets rebounded strongly after a short-lived hit and the US economy proved resilient to the changes in rhetoric and policy that came with a new president.3
Looking ahead to the US elections later this year, almost certainly a rematch between Biden and Trump, coverage of the candidates’ differences should be accompanied by awareness of their similarities. Both candidates seek to prioritize domestic production, which could lead to greater levels of on- or near-shoring of supply chains.4 Moreover, election prediction odds (see LMQ page 6) suggest divided control of the two houses of Congress and the presidency is likely; divided government has typically been associated with relative stability in domestic policy, which is generally positive for markets.5 Both of these factors — at least in isolation — point to the potential for news cycle hype to overstate long-term market impacts of this particular election.
Financial theory tells us that systematic risks are undiversifiable.6 Systematic factors are those with significant, far-reaching implications that affect the price of all assets. But financial theory also entertains that different assets may have different sensitivities to the same set of factors; an asset’s “beta” signifies the responsiveness of its price to a given factor. This is a useful way to think about an investment’s sensitivity to political and geopolitical events. For example, a property in a metro area whose economy is heavily driven by government spending would likely have a high sensitivity to political changes. Another example could be that a property located in the Baltic States, ex-Soviet countries on the border with Russia, is likely to be especially sensitive to developments concerning relations between Russia and the West. Investors should be mindful of assets’ expected sensitivities to geopolitics, whether assessed empirically or, as is more often the case given a lack of data, estimated through intuition.
Systemic risks go beyond systematic factors; they involve severe shocks that have the potential to re-align entire markets in unpredictable ways. An example of such an extreme event is the remote but non-negligible potential that today’s so-called “proxy wars”7 escalate into a broader active conflict between great powers.8 The challenge of incorporating such eventualities into investment decision making is not only estimating appropriate probabilities that such events may occur, but establishing ideal strategic responses should they do so. Catastrophic shocks are exceedingly rare and have the potential to create winners and losers in asset markets that are difficult or impossible to predict.9 It may be more fruitful for investors to focus on more incremental — and more likely — eventualities that have the added benefit of being easier to model.
Media coverage naturally tends to focus on the national and trans-national arenas, but local political developments can be especially impactful for real estate investments. Such issues can fly under the radar, especially given many of the most relevant ones are only of interest to a specialist audience. For example, changes in policy around topics like the planning process, property taxes and transfer taxes (a.k.a. stamp duty) can have direct, measurable and immediate impacts on property cash flows and thus values. The distraction of the bright shiny lights of global geopolitics should not be allowed to excessively overshadow the critical local issues that impact real estate.
To a certain extent, political risks can be managed through diversification. This is especially true when they involve isolated events that impact one country or subnational division such as a specific city, province or state. But often political events are part of a broader arc with potentially far-reaching consequences. A smattering of small seeds can grow from obscurity into a thicket. Nothing illustrates this better than the rise of populism, nationalism and protectionism around the world, themes set to dominate elections this year and beyond. The very notion of “globalized nationalism” may sound like an oxymoron, but it has become a fact.10 While diversification is an essential portfolio construction concept that helps manage many types of risk, including political risk, care must be taken to recognize when what may appear to be “specific” risks are part of a broader pattern that is difficult to “diversify away.”
Geopolitical and political risks are difficult to incorporate into traditional financial analysis. We find that thinking through scenarios can be helpful in identifying investment themes that may emerge from geopolitical trends. These can point to strategies to avoid — as well as potential new ones to pursue. The “Looking Ahead” section of this note expands on some of the key themes we have been tracking.
As geopolitical events are difficult to control and plan for, one may conclude, similarly to that same protagonist in the Everything Everywhere film, that “nothing matters.” But uncertainty is no excuse for ignoring geopolitical risks. We do stop short of directly feeding geopolitical themes into our formal risk management program, where the focus is on the specific risks that can actively be managed for our clients.11 However, it remains important to observe and understand macro conditions from a holistic perspective. The work done in our regional research teams — particularly that focused on capital markets, the signals that foreshadow potential inflection points and the local political themes that impact real estate — is critical to this effort.
We have argued that political and geopolitical risks are difficult to incorporate into investment processes, but that considering “what ifs” can be useful in uncovering relevant investment themes. Below are three potential real estate implications of the current geopolitical backdrop that we are monitoring today:
Footnotes
1 LaSalle analysis of data from Time and our proprietary investable universe estimates. See LMQ page 5 for more detail.
2 Sources: “What do financial markets think of the 2016 election?” Brookings Institution paper, Wolfers and Zitzewitz, 2016. The article predicted that “a Trump victory would trigger an 8-10% sell-off”. See also “The Consequences of a Trump Shock,” a Project Syndicate article by Simon Johnson, 2016. He predicted Trump’s election would “likely cause the stock market to crash and plunge the world into recession.”
3 On the news of the 2016 election result, Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index initially fell 5% but ended the day up more than 1%, according to Refinitiv. The US avoided a recession until the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Oxford Economics.
4 Source: “Biden vs Trump: Key policy implications of either presidency,” Economist Intelligence Unit, 2023.
5 Sources: “What to Expect From Divided Government.” PIMCO article, Cantrill, 2022. According to the article, “the equity markets historically have tended to do well in years of split government.”
6 Source: The Handbook of Risk Management: Implementing a Post-Crisis Corporate Culture. P. Carrel, 2012. “Systematic or market risk refers to the inherent danger present throughout the entire market that cannot be mitigated by diversifying your portfolio. Broad market risks include recessions, periods of economic weakness, wars, rising or stagnating interest rates, fluctuations in currencies or commodity prices, and other ‘big-picture’ issues like climate change. Systematic risk is embedded in the market’s overall performance and cannot be eliminated simply by diversifying assets.”
7 According to the Oxford Dictionary, “proxy wars are the replacement for states and non-state actors seeking to further their own strategic goals yet at the same time avoid engaging in direct, costly, warfare.” Various observers have argued that the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza conflicts are proxy wars. For example, see “IKs the ware in Ukraine a proxy conflict?” Kings College London report, Hugues (2022).
8 According to a research brief by RAND: “Great power wars — conflicts that involve two or more of the most powerful states in the international system. These have historically been among the most consequential international events.”
9 Source: “What a third world war would mean for investors,” The Economist, 2023. The article highlights the virtual impossibility of positioning an investment portfolio to outperform through prior world wars, even if the investor had correctly predicted that these conflicts would occur.
10 For further discussion of the global spread of nationalism, see “How cynical leaders are whipping up nationalism to win and abuse power”, The Economist, 2023; “Demonizing nationalist parties has not stemmed their rise in Europe,” The Economist, 2022; “The new nationalism,” The Economist, 2016.
11 We do, however, utilize tools that correlate to geopolitical risk. For example, the JLL Global Real Estate Transparency Index (GRETI) supports our monitoring of evolving investment conditions around the globe. Whilst the model does not explicitly consider political risk, the two are inexplicably linked through the inclusion of a number of governance and regulation data points.
12 Source: “A global economic policy uncertainty index from principal component analysis,” Finance Research Letters, Peng-Fei Dai, 2019.
13 Source: “What are the impacts of the Red Sea shipping crisis,” J.P. Morgan, 2024.
14 Source: “The Great Rewiring: How Global Supply Chains Are Reacting to Today’s Geopolitics,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, 2022.
15 Sources: “The business costs of supply chain disruption,” Economist Intelligence Unit, 2021 and “Why Deglobalization Makes US Inflation Worse,” Project Syndicate, Moyo, 2022.
This publication does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or any interests in any investment products advised by, or the advisory services of, LaSalle Investment Management (together with its global investment advisory affiliates, “LaSalle”). This publication has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of recipients and under no circumstances is this publication on its own intended to be, or serve as, investment advice. The discussions set forth in this publication are intended for informational purposes only, do not constitute investment advice and are subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice. Further, nothing herein constitutes legal or tax advice. Prior to making any investment, an investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to independently evaluate the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
LaSalle has taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is accurate and has been obtained from reliable sources. Any opinions, forecasts, projections or other statements that are made in this publication are forward-looking statements. Although LaSalle believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, LaSalle does not make any express or implied representation or warranty, and no responsibility is accepted with respect to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the facts, opinions, estimates, forecasts, or other information set out in this publication or any further information, written or oral notice, or other document at any time supplied in connection with this publication. LaSalle does not undertake and is under no obligation to update or keep current the information or content contained in this publication for future events. LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication and nothing contained herein shall be relied upon as a promise or guarantee regarding any future events or performance.
By accepting receipt of this publication, the recipient agrees not to distribute, offer or sell this publication or copies of it and agrees not to make use of the publication other than for its own general information purposes.
Copyright © LaSalle Investment Management 2024. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically, mechanically or otherwise howsoever, including without limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without prior written permission of LaSalle Investment Management.
Purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) in Europe ranks as one of our top-conviction sectors for investment in the coming years. No longer deserving of the “niche” label in the United Kingdom, it is already more institutional than any other type of living sectors property in the country and is rapidly maturing in Continental Europe as well. The rise of student accommodation on investors’ buy lists is for good reason. This ISA Briefing will set out why that is so and discuss how the sector stands out in Europe compared with student housing in the rest of the world.
After a brief, pandemic-induced interruption, in-person learning in Europe is back with more students enrolled than at any point in history. Higher education participation rates in the European Union have steadily risen across recent years, reaching an all-time high of 36% for 20-24 year-olds1 in 2021/22, with the same proportion recorded for the UK in 2023.2 A total of 18.5 million students were studying in the EU as of the 2021/22 academic year, with a further 2.9 million in the UK, having grown by 8% and 20%, respectively, over the previous five years.3
Demand for PBSA varies by profile of student. While domestic students are still crucial as a source of demand, particularly in markets where few students commute from home to study, international students are far more likely to reside in PBSA than domestic students (60% more likely to do so in the UK, as an example4). As shown in the chart below, international student mobility has been on a clear growth trend in recent years, with 2021/22 seeing a record number of foreign students in the EU and UK. European students studying outside their home countries elsewhere in Europe is a longstanding feature of the market, facilitated by freedom of movement within the EU, well-established student exchange programs, the rise of English-language courses and Europe’s dense geography.
A key driver of growth has been students from outside Europe. Europe has an outsized number of highly ranked universities relative to its size,5 a prevalence of English-language courses (which are increasingly no longer limited to the UK and Ireland) at a comparatively cheaper cost of tuition and living compared to North America.6 These attributes taken together can explain the sharp rise in non-EU students studying in the bloc, whose numbers have grown 31% since 2016.7 In the UK, the growth has been even faster, at 59% over the same period.8
That said, there are demand-side risks to be mindful of. The demographic outlook for Europe is mixed; forecasts for some countries such as the UK, Spain and Sweden show a demographic ‘bump,’ with the number of university-aged people growing ahead of national population levels. However, in other nations, numbers are forecast to be broadly flat (France) or negative (Germany and the Netherlands). This suggests uneven growth in demand for higher education going forward.9
This mixed demographic outlook will mean greater reliance on international student demand, but there are tentative signs that may also be facing some headwinds. A recent policy change in the UK has removed the right to visas for international students’ family members.10 For now, this change represents tinkering around the edges and is unlikely to have a major impact on demand. It does, however, indicate a directional change in policy aimed at restricting overseas student numbers, presumably in a bid to bring down immigration figures. Such policy changes may incrementally dissuade would-be foreign students from studying in the UK, though demand may shift elsewhere, potentially to the benefit of other European countries. Despite such risk factors, the overriding view is one of positivity for higher education demand in Europe and therefore PBSA.
European student housing should be viewed within the wider context of the region’s housing market. Europe is currently facing a long-term, persistent housing shortage. Housing scarcity is not limited to major gateway cities, but is also the reality within mid-sized cities and even smaller university towns. Since 2010, Europe has built homes at a rate only 40% below pre-GFC levels,11 contributing to rising rents, increasing house-price-to-income ratios and worsening access to suitable housing. Demand for rental housing in cities remains robust, supported by long-term trends of immigration, urbanization and declining home ownership rates; as such, the imbalance between supply and demand is now fully entrenched.12
Students are, like all participants in the housing market, at the mercy of housing supply and demand. Shortages have fed through to the student market, with students finding accommodation increasingly unaffordable. Over the past two years, this has led to sharp growth in PBSA rents, with several UK cities reporting year-over-year growth in the high teens for 2023, and other markets experiencing growth well ahead of previous levels.13 The lack of supply is also leading to students being housed increasingly in unsuitable conditions; stories from the UK of students living in hotels or in completely different cities over an hour travel from campus are a clear symptom of insufficient student housing stock.
New investment in the sector should contribute to resolving the imbalance, but it will be a major challenge to fully close the wide gap between supply and demand. While there are nuances between markets, rising construction and development financing costs are making the delivery of new schemes less economical, evidenced by a sharp decline in the number of residential permits issued in several countries over the past year.14 Furthermore, restrictive planning laws and burdensome safety regulations are lengthening the time it takes for projects to be realized.
These factors inform our positive outlook on the rental housing market in Europe, which carries over into PBSA. The imbalance between supply and demand will likely persist and even worsen, driving very low vacancy and supporting strong rental growth for owners of residential and student housing real estate, or those who can deliver new schemes in those sectors.
Regulations in Europe can act as a handbrake for residential rents, as we set out in our ISA Briefing, Controlling Interest: Keeping tabs on residential regulations. In nearly all continental European rental markets, rents cannot be increased annually at the landlord’s discretion, with rental levels for in-place tenants typically linked to a backward-looking index. During the recent ‘great reflation’ period, this has meant income from many rented residential properties did not keep pace with inflation. But student housing stands out from more traditional rental housing investments as having a cash flow profile far less impacted by the growth-muting tendencies of regulation.
In part, this is because PBSA often faces less regulation or stands outside of regulatory systems altogether. Students’ nature as transient, temporary residents means that their needs are rarely prioritized by local politicians, particularly compared to those of permanent residents. They typically only stay in a city for a few years, do not have dependents and their rental obligations often come with implicit or explicit parental guarantees. This means that PBSA is targeted for rent controls far less often than the wider rental market. Moreover, zoning and classifications for student accommodation are often distinct from standard rental housing, exempting it from regulations that limit absolute rent levels or restrict annual rental increases. Moreover, regulatory requirements on minimum unit sizes or lease lengths usually do not apply.
Even where regulated, PBSA benefits from its relatively short duration of tenancy. Given the vast majority of students study for 3-4 years, there is far greater annual turnover of tenants compared with the wider residential market. Faster turnover allows for landlords to more effectively mark rents to market levels. This means PBSA rents may better keep pace with inflation, even in jurisdictions where regulations do apply to the sector.
The increased maturity of student accommodation is another factor in its favor. The UK is clearly ahead of the rest of Europe in this regard, with a deep, liquid investment market, publicly traded REITs and a large number of established specialist operators. The sector’s wide acceptance from both tenants and investors means that we would consider it a ‘Core’ sector on our ‘going mainstream’ framework, as detailed in our ISA Portfolio View. Elsewhere in Europe the sector is considered more niche, but its growing acceptance means we would consider it ‘Near-Core’ on the same framework. Investment figures support the observation of a varying level of maturity for the sector—UK PBSA has made up 66% of investment volumes annual on average since 2014, despite the EU having 6.4 times the number of students.15
Over time, we expect this to change; the opportunity for investors to take advantage of the structural trends outlined above is likely to drive increased investment in the sector. Countries like as Spain or Italy have PBSA provision rates16 of below 10%, compared to more than 30% in some major UK markets,17 suggesting there is significant scope for delivery of new supply. Cities such as Milan, Madrid and Barcelona all have student populations of over 100,000 and multiple well-ranked institutions, giving them diverse demand bases and making them likely to be key growth markets for the sector in the coming years.
As niche sectors mature, greater liquidity and investor acceptance tends to lead to any yield premium they offer versus traditional sectors narrowing, as investors require less compensation for liquidity and transparency risks; such a pattern has already been observed in UK PBSA. This potential narrowing of yields in European markets is another factor behind our conviction that the sector is likely to offer attractive returns.
Student accommodation in much of Asia Pacific is still in a nascent stage, with relatively limited PBSA stock, few specialized operators and comparatively little institutional investment. The major exception in the region is Australia, which has characteristics similar to those of the sector in Europe and the UK, but is a number of years behind in its evolution. This suggests a similar path to maturity may lie ahead. Like Europe, Australia benefits from English-language courses at comparatively lower tuition costs than the US, while also offering post-study work visas. As a result, it has an even higher proportion of international students than most major European countries.18 Still, the Australian PBSA sector remains in its infancy as an investable property type. Stock numbers are low even compared to the most immature countries in Europe, with a student-to-bed ratios of 16-to-119 and significantly higher than the UK where it is around 3-to-1.
Traditionally, international students in Australia tap into private rental housing for accommodation. Both the private rental market and the PBSA sector in Australia have experienced tight occupier market fundamentals and experienced double-digit rental growth over the past two years.20 The solid performance has been primarily driven by strong migrant inflows, including international students, as well as high interest rates that encourage Australians to rent rather than buy, and relatively limited existing stock and new supply of all types of housing.
The United States, by contrast, has a more established student housing sector, but our view of the property type there is less favorable as compared to other regions. For a start, the demographics are less favorable given the population of 18-to-24 year-olds in the US is forecast to decline through 203321 and enrollment rates at 4-year institutions have remained roughly flat since 2010.22
An additional point of difference between US and European universities is their locations. Many top-tier US universities are in small cities in which a single school dominates the population and economy. Student housing properties in these markets are dependent on a single source of demand that controls enrollment growth and housing policy. Additionally, barriers to new supply are generally lower compared to major European cities, which allows for more new development to come in and disrupt the market. Taken together, these factors mean rent trends in these markets can be volatile. While there are similar university-centric towns in Europe, our investment focus is on the larger markets, where housing markets are tightest and there is a diverse demand base from multiple universities.
Footnotes
1 Source: Eurostat
2 Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency (UK)
3 Source: Eurostat, Higher Education Statistics Agency (UK)
4 Source: Savills
5 The number of European universities in the top 2000 spots Center for World University Rankings (CWUR) league tables per capita is the highest of any world region, according to data from CWUR, Oxford Economics, and analysis by LaSalle.
6 Source: Educationdata.org
7 Source: Eurostat
8 Source: HESA
9 Assuming no change in the propensity of people in that age cohort to attend university.
10 UK Government introduced policy on January 1st 2024
11 Source: European Central Bank
12 For deeper analysis of European housing markets and the underlying supply imbalance see LaSalle’s ISA Outlook 2024.
13 Source: JLL
14 LaSalle analysis of data taken from the national statistics agencies of major European countries (Germany, UK, France, Spain, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Italy, Portugal, Netherlands, Ireland)
15 Source: MSCI Real Capital Analytics
16 Metric defined as number of purpose-built student beds as a share of total enrolled population of students in higher education.
17 Source: JLL
18 Source: UNESCO
19 Source: CBRE
20 Source: SQM Research (for private rental market), as of November 2023; CBRE (for PBSA), as of August 2023
21 Source: Oxford Economics
22 Source: National Center for Education Statistics (US)
Important Notice and Disclaimer
This publication does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or any interests in any investment products advised by, or the advisory services of, LaSalle Investment Management (together with its global investment advisory affiliates, “LaSalle”). This publication has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of recipients and under no circumstances is this publication on its own intended to be, or serve as, investment advice. The discussions set forth in this publication are intended for informational purposes only, do not constitute investment advice and are subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice. Further, nothing herein constitutes legal or tax advice. Prior to making any investment, an investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to independently evaluate the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
LaSalle has taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is accurate and has been obtained from reliable sources. Any opinions, forecasts, projections or other statements that are made in this publication are forward-looking statements. Although LaSalle believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, LaSalle does not make any express or implied representation or warranty, and no responsibility is accepted with respect to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the facts, opinions, estimates, forecasts, or other information set out in this publication or any further information, written or oral notice, or other document at any time supplied in connection with this publication. LaSalle does not undertake and is under no obligation to update or keep current the information or content contained in this publication for future events. LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication and nothing contained herein shall be relied upon as a promise or guarantee regarding any future events or performance.
By accepting receipt of this publication, the recipient agrees not to distribute, offer or sell this publication or copies of it and agrees not to make use of the publication other than for its own general information purposes.
Copyright © LaSalle Investment Management 2024. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically, mechanically or otherwise howsoever, including without limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without prior written permission of LaSalle Investment Management.
LaSalle’s Global CEO Mark Gabbay sat down with The Schwab Networks’ Oliver Renick to discuss the state of commercial real estate on the Friday, March 1 edition of Market on Close. He talks about regional banking and commercial real estate and goes over what potential Fed cuts mean for commercial real estate.
Chase McWhorter, Institutional Real Estate, Inc.’s managing director, Americas, recently spoke with Richard Kleinman, Americas Head of Research and Strategy and co-CIO at LaSalle, to discuss what institutional real estate investors can expect in the new year.
They covered a wide range of topics in their conversation, including the biggest unknowns for 2024, sector outlooks, credit, capital fundraising and key differences between the real estate markets in the US and Canada.
On November 28, LaSalle’s Global Head of Research and Strategy, Brian Klinksiek, gave a keynote address at Canadian Real Estate Forum’s annual Global Property Market conference in Toronto where he discussed our global real estate investment themes for 2024:
These themes are discussed in detail in ISA Outlook 2024, our annual publication designed to help our clients and partners navigate the year ahead. It brings together smart perspectives and investment ideas from our teams around the world, based on what we see across our more than 1,500 assets that span geographies, property types and risk profiles.
CHICAGO (Dec. 5, 2023) – The US and Canadian real estate markets continue to see subdued transaction volume and a wait-and-see approach from investors amid their respective central banks’ campaigns to snuff out inflation through interest rate hikes. LaSalle’s Insights, Strategy and Analysis (ISA) Outlook 2024 makes the case that secular trends, not cyclical trends, may hold answers as to where winning property types will land in 2024, with the early half of the year looking similar to 2023 and the potential for a rebound later in the year.
The report will be released in regional chapters throughout November and December, and can be viewed at: www.lasalle.com/Outlook2024.
The ISA Outlook 2024 looks at five key themes from a global and regional level:
On a broad basis in the Americas, the report observes a potential recovery later in 2024, a continued focus on interest rates and their impact and the potential for supply weighing on real estate fundamentals.
Brian Klinksiek, Global Head of Research and Strategy at LaSalle, said: “Significant unknowns remain in the global real estate market as we head into 2024, including interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and whether major economies may tip into recession. While it’s very difficult to time markets, data on previous down cycles suggest that it’s often during unsettled periods that savvy investors can find strong value in real estate, making this a potentially strong vintage for investment.”
Select ISA Outlook 2024 findings for North America include:
Rich Kleinman, Co-CIO and Head of Research & Strategy for the Americas at LaSalle, said, “Looking at real estate investment solely through the lens of interest rates means you’re missing the bigger picture as we believe sectors and markets will adjust to rates at varying speeds. Investors with dry powder, flexibility and who can identify price gaps are likely to come out as winners in this transitional market.”
Chris Langstaff, Head of Research & Strategy for Canada at LaSalle, said, “Looking to 2024, we expect that in the midst of a continued softening of the Canadian economy in the near term, the strong migration trends will support long-term growth of the Canadian economy. This will particularly benefit the apartment and industrial sectors when economic growth resumes.”
About LaSalle Investment Management | Investing Today. For Tomorrow.
LaSalle Investment Management is one of the world’s leading real estate investment managers. On a global basis, LaSalle manages approximately $89 billion of assets in private and public real estate property and debt investments as of Q3 2023. LaSalle’s diverse client base includes public and private pension funds, insurance companies, governments, corporations, endowments and private individuals from across the globe. The firm sponsors a complete range of investment vehicles including separate accounts, open- and closed-end funds, public securities and entity-level investments. For more information, please visit www.lasalle.com, and LinkedIn.
Forward looking statement
The information discussed above is based on the market analysis and expectations of LaSalle and should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding LaSalle funds or any issuer or security in particular. The information presented herein is for illustrative and educational purposes and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy in any jurisdiction where prohibited by law or where contrary to local law or regulation. Any such offer to invest, if made, will only be made to certain qualified investors by means of a private placement memorandum or applicable offering document and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations. Past performance is not indicative of future results, nor should any statements herein be construed as a prediction or guarantee of future results.
LONDON (29 November 2023) – Despite a challenging macroeconomic picture, European real estate has begun to acclimatise to higher interest rates and will offer some of the world’s most attractive supply-demand dynamics next year, according to the Insights, Strategy and Analysis (ISA) Outlook 2024 report published by global real estate investment manager LaSalle Investment Management (“LaSalle”).
Last year’s report predicted European macro headwinds and a stall in capital markets activity, but also strong real estate market fundamentals. Looking ahead, the 2024 ISA Outlook for Europe describes how investors that are ready to move out of waiting mode, with realistic expectations for operating income growth, can find compelling new investment opportunities.
This year’s report identifies five trends that differentiate Europe and earn the region’s real estate assets an important place in investors’ property portfolios:
These trends are driving demand in particular for logistics and rental housing, as well as superior performance by offices in the ‘super-prime’ segment.
Macro challenges but appealing supply-demand dynamics
Having defied expectations of a recession in 2023, Europe still faces elevated recession risk. Inflation has begun to abate but proven comparatively stubborn, particularly in the UK, inducing higher policy rates from the ECB and Bank of England. As the delayed impact of rising rates begins to bite, European property markets enter 2024 searching for a clear peak in interest rates – as well as an end to the war in Ukraine.
Europe’s occupational fundamentals are coming off the boil of recent years, with rental growth set to cool to its lowest level since 2020 next year. However, we expect that average rent growth should remain positive, especially for logistics and rental housing – even in an economic downturn – helped by low vacancy rates relative to history.
In logistics, while demand has cooled across Europe and vacancy is ticking up from extremely low levels, a shrinking construction pipeline means that the long-term revenue growth outlook remains very bright. The scope for further e-commerce market penetration is, conversely, a headwind for European retail. However, assets such as outlet centers with turnover-linked leases have lifted revenues in line with nominal sales growth.
Investors in Europe can access strategies rooted in barriers to supply, arising from Europe’s high (and rising) constraints on development. Nowhere does this apply more than in the residential sector, where the undersupply is chronic, while migration powers long-term demand growth. Surging student demand and rising mortgage rates are causing people to rent for longer and until later in life, boosting demand further in Purpose-Built Student Accommodation and rental housing specifically.
Opportunities on the leading edge of offices
European city centers are returning to their pre-Covid levels of vibrancy, attracting office occupiers and capital to more central locations. To better understand how this spectrum of office quality is evolving, we recommend going beyond ‘bifurcation’ alone in segmenting the market. The widening gaps between leading and lagging offices are determined by a range of many factors like location, design, amenities and sustainability.
In London, “super-prime” office buildings command significant rent premiums to “prime” averages. Since 2019, the UK capital’s median office relocation was from a non-BREEAM-rated EPC-D building to BREEAM Excellent / EPC-B or better. Across Paris and London, new offices’ vacancy rate is c.2%, three times less than for second-hand offices. Notably, centrally located, modern offices in Paris and Munich have defied subdued transaction levels and remain liquid, with sales attracting respectable bidder pools.
Alternative lenders gain momentum
Outside of these pockets of investment activity, alternative lenders are well positioned to solve capital stack equations in 2024, filling gaps created by banks’ reduction in LTVs to provide debt financing that generates attractive risk-adjusted returns.
Dan Mahoney, Head of European Research and Strategy at LaSalle, said: “What we are seeing in Europe is real estate markets beginning to acclimatise to the higher-rate environment and gradually shift out of the waiting mode that has chilled transaction volumes in 2023. The continent’s distinct combination of rebounding city vibrancy, high supply barriers and compelling conditions for debt make it an important allocation in global real estate portfolios.”
Brian Klinksiek, Global Head of Research and Strategy at LaSalle, added: “Significant unknowns remain in the global real estate market as we head into 2024, including interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and whether major economies may tip into recession. While it’s very difficult to time markets, data on previous down cycles suggest that it’s often during unsettled periods that savvy investors can find strong value in real estate, making this a potentially strong vintage for investment.”
Ends
About LaSalle Investment Management | Investing Today. For Tomorrow.
LaSalle Investment Management is one of the world’s leading real estate investment managers. On a global basis, LaSalle manages approximately $78 billion of assets in private and public real estate property and debt investments as of Q1 2023. LaSalle’s diverse client base includes public and private pension funds, insurance companies, governments, corporations, endowments and private individuals from across the globe. LaSalle sponsors a complete range of investment vehicles, including separate accounts, open- and closed-end funds, public securities and entity-level investments. For more information, please visit www.lasalle.com, and LinkedIn.
NOTE: This information discussed above is based on the market analysis and expectations of LaSalle and should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding LaSalle funds or any issuer or security in particular. The information presented herein is for illustrative and educational purposes and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy in any jurisdiction where prohibited by law or where contrary to local law or regulation. Any such offer to invest, if made, will only be made to certain qualified investors by means of a private placement memorandum or applicable offering document and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations. Past performance is not indicative of future results, nor should any statements herein be construed as a prediction or guarantee of future results.
In an uncertain market, it is tempting to prioritize cyclical questions such as the risk of recession and the path of interest rates over structural topics with longer-run implications. But challenging periods in real estate markets can also be attractive times to build exposure to the asset class.1 Questions about how to build portfolios do not diminish in importance just because bond market volatility makes front-page news. In our view, one of the most useful starting points for approaching portfolio construction is having a sense of the size of the real estate investable universe and its subcomponents. This is why we regularly update our estimates of the real estate investable universe and have done so consistently since 2005.
We first shared our latest estimates for the size of the global real estate universe in the 2023 edition of ISA Portfolio View. As described there, the vast scale of real estate as an asset class is among the key pillars supporting the case for including property in multi-asset portfolio. But putting a thoughtful number on the size of the asset class is easier said than done. We believe it is worth the effort because quantifying the size and distribution of the market — rather than just a subset covered by a particular index or data source — helps investors sharpen their thinking on target allocations by asset class, geography and investment structure. A full description of our methodology, data sources and summary table by country is available here, and we are glad to provide additional detail upon request.
We estimate market size, defined as aggregate gross asset value, for three nested segments, shown below. The largest and most comprehensive estimate is for all property held for the income it provides, inclusive of all types of owners (except owner-occupiers) and all quality levels. Using a separate methodology, we also estimate real estate owned by institutional investors, and by one particular type of institutional investor — those whose equity is publicly traded.
Our analysis shows that one fifth of global real estate is owned by institutional investors, and 40% of that institutional ownership is by listed companies. The estimates also break down market size by country, property type and city, using a methodology combining several bottom-up and top-down sources.
We take a closer look in this ISA Briefing at three key findings from the real estate universe analysis: (1) global income-producing real estate has recently ebbed to a below-average size relative to GDP, (2) real estate value has a fairly even distribution across the three major global regions and (3) those regions differ significantly in how real estate is distributed across metros, implying different optimal diversification strategies.
Figures in trillions can be so enormous that they lose some meaning — so it is helpful to put those numbers in context. An illuminating comparison is to put income producing real estate alongside other asset classes like stocks and bonds, as shown in the graph below.
These estimates show global real estate is a smaller sibling to stocks and bonds but very much in the same family of major asset classes. Notably, owner-occupied residential real estate, which is not included in LaSalle’s real estate estimates, is significantly larger in size than all income-producing property, and even larger than the global fixed-income market.
Another useful comparator, shown below, is against global GDP. We estimate that real estate is equal to 60% of global GDP in 2023. This puts it at a low ebb relative to recent history. This is consistent with the historic pattern of real estate comprising a higher share of GDP late in expansions and then a lower share of GDP in repricing episodes. Currently our real estate market size estimate is near previous cyclical lows as a share of GDP seen in 2009-2012. Since 2000, our real estate market size estimates have averaged 68% of global GDP.
A second key finding from LaSalle’s universe estimates is the relatively even split in value observed between the three major regions of the Americas, Asia Pacific, and Europe. We estimate that 35% of income producing property is in the Americas, 31% in Asia Pacific, and 29% is in Europe. We believe these estimates from LaSalle’s real estate universe analysis better reflect the true opportunity set than other splits based on simple GDP or real estate indices, which can sometimes be lopsided based on where coverage is greatest or which types of investment fund products predominate. For example, 67% of the MSCI Global Property Fund Annual Index AUM is in North America.2
The split above suggests an even distribution of opportunities by region. At the same time, our national estimates also show global diversification can be achieved with a small number of countries. The eight countries with the most institutional-invested real estate together account for 70% of the invested universe. A focus on these larger countries — as well as multi-country funds — can enable investors to efficiently achieve diverse exposures, while also managing the challenges that come with differences in market practices, currency, regulation and building market knowledge.
Our third notable finding emerges when zooming in one level further from the national level to individual cities. Cities and their surrounding metropolitan areas form the underlying building blocks of the real estate universe; they are often the basic level of analysis investors have in mind when comparing market allocations.
LaSalle estimates institutional real estate market size are for the entire metropolitan (metro) market — including the principal city and its suburbs that are economically connected to it, adopting official metropolitan area definitions from national statistical agencies where available.
Real estate held in institutional investor portfolios is highly concentrated in the largest metros, and these local market size estimates highlight the degree of that concentration. The 40 largest metropolitan real estate markets account for 58% of all institutional property. Some of the world’s largest metro areas dwarf many individual countries when it comes to institutional real estate ownership. Our latest estimates show that there is likely more institutional-owned real estate in Greater Tokyo than in all but three of the 201 countries covered in our estimates.
The metro market size distribution varies considerably across regions, with important implications for portfolio strategy. Institutional real estate ownership in Asia Pacific is more concentrated in its largest metros than in any other region. And its real estate is far more concentrated in a few cities than its population. In Asia Pacific, 18 metros account for 75% of institutional property, whereas the equivalent metro total is 52 in the Americas. In Europe, real estate is the most dispersed across cities, reflecting its more fragmented quilt of different jurisdictions. Over 100 European metros must be amalgamated to account for 75% of the regional total. Such dispersion makes the task of setting target markets even more complex, which is where tools like the recently released LaSalle European Cities Growth Index (ECGI) can help.
These differences impact investment strategy and approaches to diversification. Asia Pacific’s concentration of large institutional markets implies that investors may be able to achieve diversification by investing in fewer metros, but that it is also a region where each “bet” on geo-market allocation matters more. In Europe and North America, investors are more active across a larger number of medium-sized markets, offering diversification benefits as well as challenges in terms of access and efficiency.
Footnotes
1 Vintages around the time of market disruption tend to outperform, according to LaSalle analysis of data from the INREV Global IRR Index through Q4 2022. See page 30 of our ISA Portfolio View for a more complete discussion of this analysis.
2 Source: MSCI. Data as of 2022 (most recent available).
Important Notice and Disclaimer
This publication does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or any interests in any investment products advised by, or the advisory services of, LaSalle Investment Management (together with its global investment advisory affiliates, “LaSalle”). This publication has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of recipients and under no circumstances is this publication on its own intended to be, or serve as, investment advice. The discussions set forth in this publication are intended for informational purposes only, do not constitute investment advice and are subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice. Further, nothing herein constitutes legal or tax advice. Prior to making any investment, an investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to independently evaluate the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
LaSalle has taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is accurate and has been obtained from reliable sources. Any opinions, forecasts, projections or other statements that are made in this publication are forward-looking statements. Although LaSalle believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, LaSalle does not make any express or implied representation or warranty, and no responsibility is accepted with respect to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the facts, opinions, estimates, forecasts, or other information set out in this publication or any further information, written or oral notice, or other document at any time supplied in connection with this publication. LaSalle does not undertake and is under no obligation to update or keep current the information or content contained in this publication for future events. LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication and nothing contained herein shall be relied upon as a promise or guarantee regarding any future events or performance.
By accepting receipt of this publication, the recipient agrees not to distribute, offer or sell this publication or copies of it and agrees not to make use of the publication other than for its own general information purposes.
Copyright © LaSalle Investment Management 2023. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically, mechanically or otherwise howsoever, including without limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without prior written permission of LaSalle Investment Management.
We have been fielding questions on two big macroeconomic topics impacting the Asia-Pacific region: (1) the outlook for China’s economic recovery and (2) the path of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. These involve legitimate worries about China’s growth engine and the risk of interest rate hikes in Japan. Nonetheless, we find that media coverage of these topics can sometimes sensationalize their implications without going below the surface.
In this ISA Briefing, and the accompanying LaSalle Macro Quarterly (LMQ), we dissect these concerns and share our views on several frequently asked questions. Our analysis points to a nuanced picture that is more supportive of investments in these two countries than the media coverage might suggest.
China’s economic recovery has been slower than in past cycles, as we anticipated in our ISA Briefing from early March (China’s Great Reopening). While exports and for-sale residential investment have been sluggish, domestic consumption, industrial output, manufacturing and infrastructure investment continue to support the economy (see the chart below). The for-sale residential market could bottom in the next 6-12 months as demand-supply dynamics gradually improve. Unlike previous downturns, the government has not announced a blast of mega monetary or fiscal stimulus. This conservative approach could help ensure a sustainable long-term growth environment for the Chinese economy without unintentionally creating new imbalances.
We expect economic activity in China to continue to recover through 2024. Various supportive economic measures designed to boost business and consumer confidence were rolled out after the Politburo meeting on July 24; however, it takes time for stimulus measures to take effect. We continue to expect a modest recovery in China this year, likely close to the 5% GDP growth target. But oft-cited concerns over the Chinese economy such as the weak for-sale residential sector, the defaults of highly leveraged real estate developers, high youth unemployment and deflationary pressures deserve to be addressed, as we do in this FAQ.
Note: The growth rate of industrial value-added is the y-o-y growth rate of the YTD data. The growth rates of other indicators are the y-o-y growth rates of quarterly data. The historical ranges of the indicators are based on historical y-o-y growth rates in the 20 quarters in 2015-2019.
Sources: The National Bureau of Statistics of China (GDP growth, retail sales volume, fixed asset investment growth, and industrial value-add growth), as of Q2 2023; General Administration of Customs (export growth), as of Q2 2023; LaSalle Investment Management (retail sales growth), as of Q2 2023.
Despite short-term volatility in sales volume and prices, China’s for-sale residential sector is experiencing a slowing decline in sales volumes and prices compared to the second half of 2022. In Tier 1 cities, however, both sales volume and prices are already improving [LMQ page 24]. In the next 6-12 months, the overall for-sale residential market could reach bottom, supported by government policies, a decline in supply and a reduction in mortgage rates and down payments. We expect the subsequent recovery to be gradual. For-sale residential prices may improve, though sales volumes are unlikely to recover to their prior peak. We expect housing markets in Tier 1 and top Tier 2 cities to lead the recovery of low-tier cities.
Despite our expectation of an eventual recovery in China’s for-sale residential sector, the outlook for over-leveraged developers with large exposures to low-tier cities, including Evergrande and Country Garden, remains gloomy. The resolution of these developers’ onshore and offshore corporate debt is expected to take time, which will continue to draw media attention. However, the impact of the default or bankruptcy of these troubled residential developers on the Chinese financial system has been limited so far, and we expect it to remain so, given the exposure of Chinese commercial banks to real estate construction loans only accounted for ~4% of their total assets as of the second quarter of 2023.1 Even for the more vulnerable trust companies, the exposure to real estate declined from ~13% of their total assets in the second quarter of 2019 to ~5% in the second quarter of 2023.2
The unemployment rate of the labor force aged 16-24 in China is rising. However, the direct impacts of this on retail sales and the broader economy are likely to be limited. Those aged 16-24 accounted for only around ten percent of the Chinese population as of 2021.3 In addition, many of those aged 16-24 are still in school, given that young people in China finish education at around age 20, on average.4 There could be some indirect impacts of high youth unemployment on household confidence, although we do not expect them to be significant given that the unemployment rate for the key labor force in China (aged 25-59) is at its lowest level since 2018 [LMQ page 25].
It is true that China’s headline inflation rates have been fluctuating around 0% in recent months, primarily driven by food and energy prices coming off peak levels post lockdowns. However, the core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) remains in positive territory [LMQ page 16]. As the Chinese economy gradually recovers and the post-lockdown effects fade, we expect inflation to gradually escalate.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains an outlier among global central banks, as it continues to maintain ultra-accommodative policy in the form of yield curve control (YCC). The BoJ introduced YCC in 2016, with the intent to keep 10-year government bond yields low to stimulate consumer spending and business investment. Over the past year, speculation has mounted as to whether this policy would be sustained, with volatility being triggered around moments of policy adjustments or speculation that YCC would be abandoned.
Most recently, on September 22, the BoJ kept the YCC policy unchanged with a unanimous vote. The 3-month rates used a reference for borrowing costs have been bouncing around -0.2 to -0.1%, while the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yields have increased to 0.73% since the BoJ’s surprise tweak to the YCC in December last year [LMQ page 7].5 Inflation in Japan has been running above the BoJ’s two percent target over the past 17 months,6 which in theory could be a catalyst for the BoJ to make more tweaks to its YCC policy or even exit it in the near term. But the answers to complex questions about the trajectory of rates in Japan aren’t so simple; policy actions and capital market reactions are inherently difficult to predict, but are likely to be less dramatic than feared.
The latest BoJ inflation projections and Tankan survey results7 suggest that inflation could remain above the BoJ’s 2% target at least over the next 12 months [LMQ page 19]. Wages in Japan, a key component of inflation, grew by 2.3% y-o-y in July 2023 due to a tight labor market.8 Employment conditions are expected to tighten further in the near term,9 potentially reaching levels last seen in 1990s. The 2024 Shunto (spring) wage negotiation is the next key event to monitor. Hence, it is as yet uncertain whether wage growth in Japan could remain consistently above its 2% target.
Source: The Japan Statistics Bureau (historical inflation data), as of August 2023. The Bank of Japan (inflation projection for fiscal year 2023 and 2024), as of July 2023.
Inflationary pressures do not exist in a national vacuum. Thankfully, inflation is now declining in other developed markets [LMQ page 12], potentially giving the BoJ more time to evaluate the prospects for inflation in Japan. Many central banks, following the lead of the US Federal Reserve, are seen to be at or near the end of their tightening cycles as inflationary pressure tapers. That said, global central banks are highly unlikely to cut interest rates sharply any time soon, unless economies fall into deep recession. Therefore, we expect the interest rate differential between Japan and the US to remain wide but may narrow somewhat in the near term. Moderation in the interest rate differential could help the weak yen to regain some ground, which might also alleviate some pressure on the BoJ.
Inflation in Japan has been outpacing wage growth, putting pressure on Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s approval ratings, according to a poll conducted by the Asahi Shimbun newspaper on September 18. There is a strong political impetus for Kishida and the new cabinet to ensure wage growth consistently exceeds the inflation rate. Moreover, as more than 70% of the mortgage loans in Japan have floating rates,10 there is a strong incentive for the BoJ to keep short-term interest rates relatively low. BoJ measures that could derail Japan’s economic recovery or disrupt the capital markets could be considered politically risky and thus less likely.
Footnotes
1 Source: The People’s Bank of China (total amount of outstanding real estate construction loans), as of Q2 2023; State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration of China (total assets of commercial banks), as of Q2 2023
2 Source: The China Trustee Association, as of Q2 2023
3 Source: The National Bureau of Statistics of China, as of 2021
4 Source: LaSalle Investment Management, as of 2021. The estimation is based on the average years of education among the young labor force in China published by the Ministry of Education of China in 2021.
5 Source: Bloomberg, as of September 25, 2023
6 Source: The Japan Statistics Bureau, as of August 2023
7 Source: The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey on the inflation expectation and the output price expectation among corporates of all industries, as of June 2023
8 Source: The Japan Statistics Bureau, as of August 2023
9 The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey: all-industry employment conditions, as of June 2023
10 Source: The Japan Housing Finance Agency, covering home loans between October 2022 and March 2023.
Important Notice and Disclaimer
This publication does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or any interests in any investment products advised by, or the advisory services of, LaSalle Investment Management (together with its global investment advisory affiliates, “LaSalle”). This publication has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of recipients and under no circumstances is this publication on its own intended to be, or serve as, investment advice. The discussions set forth in this publication are intended for informational purposes only, do not constitute investment advice and are subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice. Further, nothing herein constitutes legal or tax advice. Prior to making any investment, an investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to independently evaluate the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
LaSalle has taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is accurate and has been obtained from reliable sources. Any opinions, forecasts, projections or other statements that are made in this publication are forward-looking statements. Although LaSalle believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, LaSalle does not make any express or implied representation or warranty, and no responsibility is accepted with respect to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the facts, opinions, estimates, forecasts, or other information set out in this publication or any further information, written or oral notice, or other document at any time supplied in connection with this publication. LaSalle does not undertake and is under no obligation to update or keep current the information or content contained in this publication for future events. LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication and nothing contained herein shall be relied upon as a promise or guarantee regarding any future events or performance.
By accepting receipt of this publication, the recipient agrees not to distribute, offer or sell this publication or copies of it and agrees not to make use of the publication other than for its own general information purposes.
Copyright © LaSalle Investment Management 2023. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically, mechanically or otherwise howsoever, including without limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without prior written permission of LaSalle Investment Management.
The art and science of portfolio construction matters most when market conditions change suddenly. This has never been truer than in the past few years, which saw major pivots in capital markets as policymakers shifted from trying to stimulate the economy at the start of the pandemic, to applying the breaks to prevent inflation running out of control. The speed and unpredictability of these changes highlights the importance of planning ahead by thinking carefully about how to create portfolios that can be expected to be resilient. Foundational concepts of portfolio management such as diversification and risk management should be considered alongside an investor’s objectives and values to devise a strategy for their portfolio.
It is with these factors in mind that we release first edition of LaSalle’s ISA Portfolio View, which seeks to answer five foundational questions about real estate:
Why real estate lays out the case for property exposure in a multi-asset context? Why global considers the benefits of expanding horizons beyond an investor’s domestic market? Why be sector smart tries to make sense of the recent changes in relative sector performance with an eye to building resilient portfolios? Why be quadrant smart addresses the interplay among the “four quadrants” of real estate? Why manage risk explores the importance of—and our approach to—managing investment risk? In many ways the ISA Portfolio View is the continuation of a longstanding strand of LaSalle’s analysis that would typically form the latter chapters of the Investment Strategy Annual. In this new standalone edition, we draw from a deep pool of experts from around the firm, acknowledging the interconnectedness of real estate opportunities: across borders, across sectors, and across quadrants. We welcome your questions and feedback.
Important Notice and Disclaimer
This publication does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or any interests in any investment products advised by, or the advisory services of, LaSalle Investment Management (together with its global investment advisory affiliates, “LaSalle”). This publication has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of recipients and under no circumstances is this publication on its own intended to be, or serve as, investment advice. The discussions set forth in this publication are intended for informational purposes only, do not constitute investment advice and are subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice. Further, nothing herein constitutes legal or tax advice. Prior to making any investment, an investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to independently evaluate the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
LaSalle has taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is accurate and has been obtained from reliable sources. Any opinions, forecasts, projections or other statements that are made in this publication are forward-looking statements. Although LaSalle believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, LaSalle does not make any express or implied representation or warranty, and no responsibility is accepted with respect to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the facts, opinions, estimates, forecasts, or other information set out in this publication or any further information, written or oral notice, or other document at any time supplied in connection with this publication. LaSalle does not undertake and is under no obligation to update or keep current the information or content contained in this publication for future events. LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication and nothing contained herein shall be relied upon as a promise or guarantee regarding any future events or performance.
By accepting receipt of this publication, the recipient agrees not to distribute, offer or sell this publication or copies of it and agrees not to make use of the publication other than for its own general information purposes.
Copyright © LaSalle Investment Management 2023. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically, mechanically or otherwise howsoever, including without limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without prior written permission of LaSalle Investment Management.
In recent editions of LaSalle Macro Quarterly (LMQ), many charts have highlighted interest rate rises. LaSalle has especially focused on the repricing of income-producing real estate that rate rises have triggered in much of the globe. But the spike in rates is also having an impact on owner-occupied residential real estate, which accounts for a much larger share of the global property pie than do institutional assets. As we release the LMQ for Q3 2023, we look at the broad implications of higher residential mortgage rates, and how they vary by country. Even if institutional investors do not directly touch owner-occupied housing, they should consider the risks (and a few opportunities) caused by these dynamics.
Higher residential mortgage rates have implications for both new buyers and existing owners. For new buyers, higher rates reduce the purchase price they can pay (assuming a fixed amount of debt service). In practice, buyers cope with this by dedicating a larger share of their income to housing, or by scaling back or postponing their home purchase ambitions. For economies in which housing constitutes a meaningful share of the economy, this can create a noticeable drag on GDP growth. It may also put downward pressure on home prices, which can have indirect wealth effects on consumer spending. (So far, house prices for key countries have held up reasonably well during this period of rising rates—as shown in the chart on page 7 of the LMQ—but risks remain.)
For existing owners, much depends on the specific terms of the mortgage. The US mortgage market is unique globally in having a very large share of loans with rates that are fixed over a fully amortizing term (typically 30 years), according to data from Fitch. Assuming they do not move, borrowers can continue to enjoy low fixed payments. Elsewhere in the world, residential mortgage rates are usually floating or fixed only for a limited time. When rates rise, they filter through to borrowers gradually as fixed rate periods end—in other words, when rates reset. Depending on the mechanism for rate resets, they can cause a direct hit to disposable incomes. Households may react to this by scaling back spending elsewhere, or in the extreme, leaving the ranks of homeownership. These impacts will be more significant in places where consumers already have a high debt service burden.
For investors in income-producing institutional real estate, there are two aspects of these dynamics that are especially relevant. One is the broad recession risk that comes from weaker housing markets and stretched consumers. Oxford Economics has cited differential exposures to mortgage resets as a driver of divergence in near-term economic growth between the US and Canada. Second, the substitution effect from owned to rented housing may provide a boost to both multifamily and single-family rental demand, potentially driving stronger performance for residential strategies.
Canada is an interesting case study because the structural characteristics of its residential mortgage market and the availability of transparent data permit a relatively clear identification of mortgage rate resets. Most residential mortgages in Canada have 25- or 30-year amortization periods, with typical fixed rate periods (known as “terms”) running from as short as one year to as long as ten years, according to the Bank of Canada. Some mortgages have a fixed interest rate that is reset for the next term according to the prevailing market rate. This occurs through a renewal at the end of each term, until the mortgage is fully paid off. According to Bank of Canada (see table), fixed-rate mortgages account for two-thirds of balances outstanding in the country among lenders. Most fixed-rate mortgages have remaining terms of five years or more (40% of overall balances), followed by three-to-five years at 18.4%. Only 8.5% of all fixed-rate mortgages expire in the next three years
However, the remaining one-third of Canadian mortgages are variable rate, which float based on short-term interest rate movements. The Bank of Canada has hiked interest rates nine times since March 2022, pushing up rates on some variable-rate mortgages to around 6.0%, from roughly 2.8% a year ago. The most common type of variable-rate mortgages in Canada have fixed monthly payments. As interest rates rise, a higher proportion of the payment goes toward interest and less toward principal. Rising rates over the past 18 months have put some borrowers in the position of having monthly payments that do not cover the interest portion of the mortgage. The excess (unpaid) interest for that month gets added to the principal, increasing the original mortgage amount. Compared to countries where the absolute monthly payment amount adjusts directly with rates, this mechanism prevents an immediate near-term hit to disposable income from rising rates. But it does effectively embed the impact of higher rates into a longer-term increase in debt on household balance sheets.
Beyond Canada, which countries are impacted by rising residential mortgage rates? Cross-border comparisons are not straightforward; the devil is in the detail. Nuances to consider include variation in fixed-rate terms, amortization periods, interest rate levels, and when and how rates reset. Many factors, including macro indicators like household debt levels and the structure of countries’ residential mortgage markets, need to be considered in assessing a market’s exposure.
One persistent issue is that data on the relative shares of fixed- versus variable-rate mortgages by country tend to classify any mortgage as fixed rate if it is fixed for a period of time, even if it that rate will reset in the near term. Analysis by Fitch Ratings attempts to correct for this with a metric that includes any mortgages with rates that are expected to expire or reset within 24 months. On this analysis, Australia leads in exposure to resets, followed by Spain, the UK, and Canada. Australian mortgages with fixed rates generally have shorter fixed-rate periods of around two years; this compares with five years in the United Kingdom and Canada, and 30 years in the U.S. (Although not in the Fitch dataset, we understand that Sweden is also relatively highly exposed to resets.)
Fitch extended their analysis to combine and layer in pre-reset mortgage debt-service-to-income (“DTI”) ratios by country. This allowed them to estimate how much an increase in DTIs would be caused by a five-percentage point increase in interest rates. They found that the impact roughly followed the rank ordering above, with Australia and the UK most exposed, and the US least exposed. It should be noted that many of the same mitigating factors that apply to Canada (e.g., strong immigration, shortages of housing, low mortgage arrears) also apply to Australia, Spain and the UK.
The outlier case of the US is not quite as positive as it may appear. As a country with high internal mobility and (unlike many other markets) mortgages that are not “portable” between different collateral, the effective exposure of US households to mortgage rate changes is probably higher than implied by these data alone. Moreover, there are some downsides to having a large share of long, fixed rate mortgages. For one, the lesser impact of higher rates on consumer spending potentially requires more interest rates increases to have the same desired impact on inflation. Another factor, which is already evident, is that having a low interest rate locked in creates a barrier to moving, limiting the supply of housing for sale and making home prices sticky.
Sources:
1. ECONOSIGHTS: Three reasons why Australia is more vulnerable to higher rates – Mousina, Diana, AMP Capital, September 2022.
2. Fear of Renewal: Most new homebuyers ‘very worried’ next term will bring much higher monthly payments – Angus Reid Institute, May 2023
3. How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers – Bank of Canada, May 2020
4. Statistics on Mortgage Arrears in Canada – Canadian Bankers Association, Table DB50 Public, June 2023
5. Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook – 2023 – Fitch Ratings, December 2022
6. Mortgage Interest Payments in Advanced Economies – One Channel of Monetary Policy – Reserve Bank of Australia, Statement on Monetary Policy, February 2023
Important Notice and Disclaimer
This publication does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or any interests in any investment products advised by, or the advisory services of, LaSalle Investment Management (together with its global investment advisory affiliates, “LaSalle”). This publication has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of recipients and under no circumstances is this publication on its own intended to be, or serve as, investment advice. The discussions set forth in this publication are intended for informational purposes only, do not constitute investment advice and are subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice. Further, nothing herein constitutes legal or tax advice. Prior to making any investment, an investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to independently evaluate the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
LaSalle has taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is accurate and has been obtained from reliable sources. Any opinions, forecasts, projections or other statements that are made in this publication are forward-looking statements. Although LaSalle believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, LaSalle does not make any express or implied representation or warranty, and no responsibility is accepted with respect to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the facts, opinions, estimates, forecasts, or other information set out in this publication or any further information, written or oral notice, or other document at any time supplied in connection with this publication. LaSalle does not undertake and is under no obligation to update or keep current the information or content contained in this publication for future events. LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication and nothing contained herein shall be relied upon as a promise or guarantee regarding any future events or performance.
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Copyright © LaSalle Investment Management 2023. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically, mechanically or otherwise howsoever, including without limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without prior written permission of LaSalle Investment Management.
The state of the market year-to-date: Capital markets digest repricing, as tenant demand stays resilient and energy markets deliver a positive surprise.
Our latest LaSalle European Market View shows how Europe’s economies and real estate markets are being impacted by, and adapting to, the current period of unusual uncertainty.
This update highlights recently released data on how Europe’s energy market has coped with shutoffs and surging prices in the winter following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It did so through a combination of reduced consumption (p. 6), more electricity generation from renewables (p. 7), and shifting to imports from new sources (p. 8). In Q1, the EU’s natural gas consumption was tracking 18% below average. This owes some thanks to mild winter temperatures, but also to conscious conservation efforts.
Natural gas consumption in Europe (EU27)
Source: LaSalle analysis of Eurostat data to March 2023. Note that the UK is excluded from all time series data above.
Falling energy prices have led to recent steep headline inflation declines (p. 11) and kept Europe’s largest economies from entering recession to date (p. 9). Yet core inflation – excluding volatile food and energy – is higher today than in 2022 – and GDP growth is at stall speed. European banks have weathered the aftershocks of SVB’s failure and the Swiss National Bank’s forced resolution of Credit Suisse. However, some pullback in bank risk appetite is evident in debt markets (see p. 29 and our April ISA Briefing).
Even as the ECB and Bank of England’s rate hikes have continued, long-term swap rates today are similar to where they started the year (p. 28). This has given private real estate and yields some time to digest the new repricing math. The UK’s repricing stands out for its speed, with monthly UK index data swinging to a positive return in March after eight months of deep negative returns (p. 34).
European real estate transaction volume declined to an 11-year low in Q1. This is a lagging rather than concurrent indicator, however, and reflects the high uncertainty and bid-ask spreads that existed near the end of 2022. At the same time, the most recent Q1 data on occupier trends shows hardy demand fundamentals, albeit with some cooling. In Q1, prime logistics rents continued to grow at a double-digit annualized pace and UK residential sector kept pace with high inflation across many markets, even as office rents cooled and retail rents were flat. As we look ahead, we believe the relationship between current vacancy and its historic levels (p. 18, 20, 21) points to the European property types and markets where rent momentum is most likely to continue.
Quarter-over-quarter rental growth in Europe
*Average rent and Q1 2023 residential data currently unavailable. UK residential rent data is based on new listings (rather than in-place rents).
Source: JLL, HomeLet data to Q1 2023. Latest as of May 2023.
London (10 May 2023) – LaSalle Investment Management (“LaSalle”), the global real estate investment manager, today announces the provision of a fixed-rate green loan facility of £130m to finance Greystar’s acquisition and development of a 770-bed student housing asset in Wembley Park, London.
The loan was provided through LaSalle Debt Investments – one of Europe’s leading alternative real estate lending platforms, established in 2010.
The project is situated within the highly sought-after Wembley regeneration area, an established neighbourhood benefiting from diverse local amenities and facilities. The project benefits from excellent transportation links and is a five-minute walk to Wembley Park station, providing easy access to Central London. It is also well connected to a range of London’s leading universities, such as King’s College London and the London School of Economics.
The green loan will partially fund the construction of the 770-bed asset which is scheduled to complete in the summer of 2025. The development will comprise 20 storeys with 12,000 sq ft of amenities, including a co-working space, external courtyards and gardens, a gym and bike storage. The development has been designed with state-of-the-art sustainability credentials in mind, aiming to achieve a BREEAM rating of “Excellent” and targeting a ‘Two Star’ Fitwell accreditation.
LaSalle Debt Investments credit strategies include senior loans, whole loans, mezzanine, and development finance. It forms part of LaSalle’s pan-European Debt & Value-Add Strategies platform, which provides debt and equity capital solutions across European markets and sectors.
Ben Mowbray, Senior Director – Investment, Greystar, said: “LaSalle’s green loan facility will help us deliver a substantial, but most importantly sustainable student accommodation asset in Wembley. We are committed to ensuring our assets provide a home away from home for students in a time of unprecedented demand without compromising the environment.”
Robert Fay, Director, Debt Investments, LaSalle, said: “We look forward to helping Greystar deliver a best-in-class student product with strong sustainability credentials. This loan represents LaSalle’s fourteenth loan facility secured against student accommodation, a sector we have strong conviction in across our wider European business.”
Fiammetta Granchi, Vice President, Debt Investments, LaSalle, added: “This facility with Greystar is fixed rate and does not require syndication, providing enhanced stability to the borrower. The loan was structured as a green loan, compliant with the Loan Market Association’s green loan framework and Green Loan Principles. As the drive towards superior environmental performance accelerates, we are committed to supporting our borrowers to deliver high-quality, sustainable accommodation.”
About LaSalle Investment Management | Investing Today. For Tomorrow.
LaSalle Investment Management is one of the world’s leading real estate investment managers. On a global basis, LaSalle manages approximately $79 billion of assets in private and public real estate property and debt investments as of Q3 2022. LaSalle’s diverse client base includes public and private pension funds, insurance companies, governments, corporations, endowments and private individuals from across the globe. LaSalle sponsors a complete range of investment vehicles, including separate accounts, open- and closed-end funds, public securities and entity-level investments. For more information, please visit www.lasalle.com, and LinkedIn.
About LaSalle Debt Investments
LaSalle Debt Investments is part of LaSalle’s growing $10bn Debt & Value-Add Strategies platform in Europe and invests in a diverse range of real estate credit products – spanning senior loans, whole loans, mezzanine, development finance, corporate finance, NAV facilities and preferred equity – with significant experience across various sectors, geographies, deal sizes and capital structures. Since launching the business line in 2010, LaSalle has been one of Europe’s most active alternative real estate debt providers with a long track record of lending to best-in-class sponsors.
About Greystar
Greystar is a leading, fully integrated global real estate company offering expertise in property management, investment management, development, and construction services in institutional-quality rental housing, logistics, and life sciences sectors. Headquartered in Charleston, South Carolina, Greystar manages and operates more than $250 billion of real estate in 234 markets globally with offices throughout North America, Europe, South America, and the Asia-Pacific region. Greystar is the largest operator of apartments in the United States, manages more than 817,000 units/beds globally, and has a robust institutional investment management platform comprised of more than $69 billion of assets under management, including over $29 billion of development assets. Greystar was founded by Bob Faith in 1993 to become a provider of world-class service in the rental residential real estate business. To learn more, visit www.greystar.com.
NOTE: This information discussed above is based on the market analysis and expectations of LaSalle and should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding LaSalle funds or any issuer or security in particular. The information presented herein is for illustrative and educational purposes and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy in any jurisdiction where prohibited by law or where contrary to local law or regulation. Any such offer to invest, if made, will only be made to certain qualified investors by means of a private placement memorandum or applicable offering document and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations. Past performance is not indicative of future results, nor should any statements herein be construed as a prediction or guarantee of future results.
LONDON (11 April 2023) – LaSalle Investment Management (“LaSalle”), the global real estate investment manager, today announces that LaSalle Debt Investments, one of Europe’s largest alternative real estate lending platforms, has expanded its senior-secured debt strategies to include a dedicated sustainable lending focus. In the last year, the platform has provided over €350 million of green loans across Europe.
LaSalle Debt Investments has grown its capacity to support borrowers in retrofitting existing assets to improve their energy performance and fund the construction of the next generation of energy-efficient buildings across the UK and continental Europe.
Recent green loan activity includes a £148m senior facility to support the construction of a PBSA scheme in central London, a £115m development facility to support a multi-asset regional UK PBSA portfolio, and a €40m mezzanine facility to support the retrofit of a Berlin office asset.
LaSalle was recently recognised as ‘ESG Firm of the Year’ in the 2022 PERE Awards, acknowledging the combination of strategic hires, initiatives and deals that embed sustainability as a critical pillar of the firm’s long-term corporate strategy and overall investment philosophy.
Richard Craddock, Managing Director, leading LaSalle’s senior-secured debt strategies, said: “As the drive towards Net Zero Carbon accelerates, we continue to support our European borrowers to deliver high-quality, sustainable accommodation across sectors. Demand for loans to finance green refurbishments and the construction of energy-efficient developments will likely increase as the need to decarbonise gathers further momentum. By adding a dedicated green loan focus to our existing senior-secured strategies, LaSalle is able to provide a crucial source of capital to help reduce European real estate’s carbon footprint.”
LaSalle’s green loan structures are compliant with the Loan Market Association’s green loan framework.
LaSalle Debt Investments has over €1.5bn lending capacity in Europe across its credit strategies, which include senior loans, whole loans, mezzanine, and development finance. It forms part of LaSalle’s pan-European Debt & Value-Add Strategies division, which provides debt and equity capital solutions across European markets and sectors.
About LaSalle Investment Management | Investing Today. For Tomorrow.
LaSalle Investment Management is one of the world’s leading real estate investment managers. On a global basis, LaSalle manages approximately $79 billion of assets in private and public real estate property and debt investments as of Q3 2022. LaSalle’s diverse client base includes public and private pension funds, insurance companies, governments, corporations, endowments and private individuals from across the globe. LaSalle sponsors a complete range of investment vehicles, including separate accounts, open- and closed-end funds, public securities and entity-level investments. For more information, please visit www.lasalle.com, and LinkedIn.
NOTE: This information discussed above is based on the market analysis and expectations of LaSalle and should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding LaSalle funds or any issuer or security in particular. The information presented herein is for illustrative and educational purposes and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy in any jurisdiction where prohibited by law or where contrary to local law or regulation. Any such offer to invest, if made, will only be made to certain qualified investors by means of a private placement memorandum or applicable offering document and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations. Past performance is not indicative of future results, nor should any statements herein be construed as a prediction or guarantee of future results.
About LaSalle Debt Investments
LaSalle Debt Investments is part of LaSalle’s growing $10bn Debt & Value-Add Strategies platform in Europe and invests in a diverse range of real estate credit products – spanning senior loans, whole loans, mezzanine, development finance, corporate finance, NAV facilities and preferred equity – with significant experience across various sectors, geographies, deal sizes and capital structures. Since launching the business line in 2010, LaSalle has been one of Europe’s most active alternative real estate debt providers with a long track record of lending to best-in-class sponsors.
US private real estate returns went negative in Q4 2022 as the impact of higher interest rates continued to ripple through to market pricing and appraised values. This trend is expected to continue through the first half of 2023 with stability projected to return later in the year.
Returns in the fourth quarter showed negative appreciation and income returns in line with previous quarters, resulting in negative total returns for both the NPI and ODCE. The slowdown in returns was most significant for industrial, with retail delivering the highest returns of the major sectors (this is a notable shift from trends of the last 5+ years). Looking ahead, the dominant theme in sector performance is expected to be the under-performance of offices.
This note provides details on the fourth quarter performance of the NPI and ODCE indices, summarizes the outlook for future returns, and provides some information regarding insights from the first release of data related to the new NCREIF subtypes.
Highlights from the Q4 data releases include:
Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank failed. Regulators hastily arranged the sale of Credit Suisse to UBS. Concerns spread about numerous other small and major global banks including Deutsche Bank. Recent events have raised fears that the global economy is in for a credit crunch of unknown magnitude and duration. As we release our first LaSalle Macro Quarterly (LMQ), a revamp of our long-standing “macro indicators deck,” banking sector strains represent the number one macro risk we are assessing.
The proximate cause of each recent bank failure was deposit flight, a drain from the liabilities side of the bank balance sheet. This is fundamentally not a toxic assets problem of the sort that banks faced in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Rather, it is a liquidity issue that can be addressed by temporary emergency funding from central banks. But solvency, the greater concern for banks in the longer run is closely tied to the duration of the asset book.
When investors in interest rate-sensitive assets refer to duration, they typically mean the change in value associated with a change in risk-free rates. SVB failed, in large part, due to a perception that it had sustained severe losses on riskless (but long-duration) US Treasuries and near-riskless agency mortgage-backed securities as these assets had mechanically repriced in the higher interest rate environment.
Just as there was a mechanical element to the initiation of this crisis, there is a mechanical feedback loop that can help the crisis partially self-resolve. As worries around bank solvency, credit conditions and the real economy spread, expectations for policy rates fell, causing long-duration assets to once more increase in price, shoring up balance sheets.
As a result, there has been a 360-degree round trip in interest rate forward curves between the beginning of February and the end of March. At first, curves shifted upward due to spiking inflation data, before falling substantially as banking systems came under pressure, followed by a return to the status quo as resolution measures stabilized markets and inflation seized the attention of policymakers and investors once again. As a result of this volatility in rate expectations, the MOVE index of bond option volatility1 has reached the highest levels since the GFC.
There are many media, economic and financial industry sources to turn to for a deeper discussion of the underpinnings of the recent financial sector instability, or to track the daily news flow and the resulting volatility. Our focus is on the practical considerations for investors in property. We have identified four key recommendations for how real estate investors can assess risks and manage through volatility.
A lot of analyses have focused on idiosyncratic aspects of individual banks. For example, Silicon Valley Bank has been highlighted for its tech sector links and an unusually large share of its deposits not covered by deposit insurance. Credit Suisse had faced multiple controversies in recent years, including a recent disclosure of reporting irregularities which triggered an equity sell-off, as well as an outsized exposure to losses in cryptocurrencies.
Fundamentally, however, the current pressures impact all banks, with the weakest links facing the greatest strain. The question is: How far beyond those weakest links will the challenges spread? This will depend on how the vagaries of sentiment and fear interact with the willingness of policymakers to take action to protect the banking system. Thus far, action taken to resolve liquidity issues seems to have had the intended stabilizing effect, with banks such as Deutsche tested, but not forced to failure.
Central banks meeting at the end of March faced a dilemma between continuing their path of tightening to fight inflation, versus moderating or pausing to prioritize financial stability. In the end, the European Central Bank (ECB), Federal Reserve (‘Fed’) and the Bank of England (BoE) all opted to press ahead with rate rises2. Their decisions were helped in part by data showing an unexpected re-acceleration in inflation, and perhaps also wishing not to betray significant concern about the stability of financial systems.
Volatility in rates markets has a symmetric aspect, so both the initial fall in expectations and the return to a higher implied path for rates have contributed to the MOVE index reaching decade highs. Research suggests3 that bond volatility is less tied to meeting-by-meeting central bank decisions, which may be well-telegraphed, and more to expectations about the ‘terminal’ rate—the highest level that policy rates will reach over a cycle. As we near that peak rate, bond options are more sensitive to news at the margin than they were even to 75bp rate increases when it was well understood that the terminal rate was still far higher.
Long duration—and therefore high sensitivity to interest rates—is a characteristic not just of bonds, but any long-hold assets with uncertain cashflows, including income-producing real estate. It follows that real estate values, especially in sectors and geographies which have repriced furthest and most quickly such as UK industrial, are also more tightly linked to terminal policy rates at this point than month-to-month central bank decisions.
Bank lending is likely to become more conservative as duration risk attracts both external regulatory attention and enhanced internal risk management scrutiny. Any pullback in bank lending activity should further increase the importance of private credit across the economy, including in real estate. This could be beneficial to non-bank lenders funded by sticky capital, who can be expected to originate a greater proportion of mortgage loans. On the equity side, investors should cautiously manage their debt maturity schedule in the near term and diversify their sources of debt capital over the medium term.
The failures of SVB, Signature and Credit Suisse, and the pressures on other banks, have elicited a policy response that some banking experts consider to be sufficient to prevent severe additional damage to the economy. Certainly, rate-setters have felt sufficiently confident to press ahead with policy rate increases. But as in all cases of banking sector turbulence, there is considerable uncertainty and outcomes will depend on difficult-to-predict sentiment factors. Ultimately, the systemic nature of financial market risks makes them inherently difficult to control. As real estate managers and investors, our best approach is to understand and monitor these risks and practically diversify investments to mitigate the impact on the overall portfolio.
Footnotes: 1 [LMQ slide 3], 2 [LMQ slide 4], 3 Based on work by Natixis, a French corporate and investment bank, 4 [LMQ slide 6]
What it means for Chinese and global property markets
After nearly three years of enforcing a comprehensive approach to COVID-19, involving frequent testing, rigorous contact tracing and strict border quarantines, China unexpectedly ended its zero-COVID policy in early December 2022.
After an initial period of surging new infections, by mid-January 2023 the situation had improved substantially. Most recently, cases have fallen sharply as the virus has already infected a large share of the population. Life in China is quickly returning to normal, as evidenced by rebounding subway passenger volume and rising road congestion.1 This return to pre-pandemic normality has meaningful implications for the economic and real estate outlook in China, the broader Asia-Pacific region and the world.
1 Source: Amap.com via WIND Economic Database (road congestion index), WIND Economic Database (subway passenger volume), as of 15 Feb 2023)
China’s reopening provides a clear boost to the Chinese economy, and high-frequency indicators suggest it may have already started to recover. The official manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI both returned in January 2023 to above 50, the dividing line between expansion and contraction, after hitting the lowest levels since March 2020 in December 2022.2
Meanwhile, among the 70 cities tracked, 36 experienced increases in for-sale residential prices on a quarterly basis in January 2023, compared with only 15 cities in December 2022.3
Unlike China’s V-shaped recovery from the initial COVID-19 outbreak in 2021, the rebound this time is likely to be gradual and mild. There are two factors supporting that expectation. First, despite the reopening and a shift in government policy towards promoting growth, it could take some time to repair the balance sheets of Chinese businesses and households, which are fragile after nearly three years under the zero-COVID regime. Second, the country’s for-sale residential sector, historically a main driver for the economy, remains weak despite signs of bottoming.
2 National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS)
3 National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS)
Looking to the broader Asia-Pacific region, China’s reopening is an encouraging development for the hospitality industry. Since March 2022, hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) had been gradually improving in countries which were advanced in their post-COVID reopening, particularly Australia and Singapore.4
However, Chinese visitors historically have been a significant source of hotel demand and visitor spending in major Asia-Pacific markets, and they were almost completely absent in 2022. As such, hotel performance in most tourism destinations of the region is still trailing the pre-pandemic level. As China unleashes pent-up demand for travel, a recovery in Asia-Pacific hotel and tourism-oriented retail sectors is likely.
4 The Singapore Tourism Board, The Hong Kong Tourism Board, as of Dec 2022
5 The latest data on international visitor arrivals to (1) the U.K. are as of September 2022, (2) Australia, Germany, and the U.S. are as of November 2022, and (3) Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea are as of December 2022. The data on the proportion of international visitor arrivals from China for all countries are as of 2019 except Germany which is as of 2018. Source: Statista and CEIC (Germany), as of 2018; the U.K. Office for National Statistics (the U.K.), as of September 2022; the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of November 2022; the Hong Kong Tourism Board, the Japan National Tourism Organization; the Singapore Tourism Board; the Korea Tourism Organization, as of December 2022.
The impact of China’s reopening on the global economy will depend on the interplay of two opposing factors. On the one hand, higher demand from stronger growth in the world’s second-largest economy could potentially increase global inflation, or at least keep it high for some time.
On the other hand, the smoother operation of global supply chains from a fully reopened China is potentially a counterbalancing disinflationary trend. Indeed, an end to the start-stop impact of lockdowns on production and transportation should reduce the risk of further supply chain shortages.
Our expectation of only a gradual recovery in the domestic economy means that the hit to global inflation may not be significant. Weaknesses in the Chinese housing market is likely to prevent too much upward pressure on global construction costs from materializing, even though China is the world’s largest steel exporter. But any boost to inflation, just as it is starting to come down in much of the world, would be unwelcome and could mean that global central banks might not be able to stop raising interest rates as soon as otherwise.
6 Among the major commercial real estate sectors, currently only industrial and multifamily rental assets are qualified underlying assets for ownership by domestic public REITs.
We property strategists are accustomed to working with traditional real estate variables such as net absorption, rental growth and vacancy rates. But in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was no choice but to go on a crash course in previously unfamiliar epidemiological concepts like positivity rates, R-naught¹ and vaccine effectiveness, as these suddenly became drivers of short-term real estate conditions. Over the past year, real estate researchers have likewise had to quickly scale a learning curve in understanding energy markets. For the first time ever, we produced charts denominated in once esoteric units of measurement like therms, MMBTUs and MWhs.²
Gas, electricity and oil prices have long been linked to real estate outcomes—energy crises sparked 1970s inflation and have shaped real estate demand from Alberta to Texas and Scotland. But when supply is predictable and prices moderate, as in the years before the pandemic, those links can become dormant. They have awoken again in the past year. The recent dramatic but uneven volatility in energy prices has deeply influenced the economic and property market outlook—especially in Europe—and we expect it to continue to do so going forward.
One year on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, European energy markets have proven adaptable, facing down a unique degree of energy disruption owing to the region’s dependence on pipeline links from Russia. After initially skyrocketing—European natural gas price at their peak were twelve-times higher relative to the ten-year, pre-conflict average—by mid-February 2023 prices it had fallen to a level only around two and a half times that long-term average.³ Government schemes to partially socialize the cost of higher energy, at the expected expense of massive government deficits and higher borrowing costs, now look a lot less extreme.
¹ R0 is the basic reproduction number, which describes the expected number of cases of an infectious disease directly generated by a single case, in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection.
² 1 therm = 100,000 British thermal units (BTUs), a measure used in UK natural gas pricing. 1 MMBTU = 1,000,000 BTUs, which is used in US gas pricing. 1 MWh = 1,000,000 watts of electricity over one hour, used in European pricing of natural gas.
³ Refinitiv, Natural Gas TTF (Title Transfer Facility) historical front month futures as of 13 February 2023
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange and Intercontinental Exchange data via Bloomberg. As of 1 February 2023⁴
Relatively warm weather, cutbacks in consumption and alternative sources of energy, such as renewables and the global liquified natural gas (LNG) market, have contributed to unusually full gas storage reserves. German wind, solar, biomass, hydro, and other renewables generated 47% of the country’s electricity in 2022, a five-percentage point rise in mix.⁵ This allowed European energy prices to fall and has caused headline inflation to ease substantially, even if European core inflation remains stubbornly high. This has brightened the region’s economic prospects as well; our call in the ISA Outlook 2023 (published in December 2022) that a European recession was “almost certainly underway” now appears premature.
Is Europe out of the woods? Far from it. The winter is not yet over, and a cold snap could quickly deplete gas storage reserves. Going into next winter, the Russian supply that was used to partly fill those tanks last autumn will likely be completely unavailable. Meanwhile, Chinese demand for LNG, which was down by 20% in 2022 owing to the country’s zero-COVID policy⁶, is likely to rebound as its economy reopens, leading to more competition for tanker deliveries. Europe’s energy reorientation will probably be at least a decade-long process, which will not be reduced in scope, scale or difficulty by one fortuitously warm winter—though new LNG import capacity and suppliers have accelerated the shift in the past year. We expect that energy prices will continue to have deep impacts on Europe’s economy and real estate markets.
⁴ TTF future prices have been used as a benchmark for European natural gas prices due to being the most liquid gas trading hub in Europe
⁵ German Environment Agency (UBA), press release from 12 December 2022
⁶ International Energy Agency (IEA), report from November 2022
While Europe’s historic reliance on Russian fossil fuels makes it uniquely exposed to energy risks, we see energy as a relevant, if variable, factor for global real estate. This is in part because energy markets operate at both global and regional scales. The Ukraine crisis caused an acute surge in European gas prices, but also a worldwide spike in the price of oil, which trades in a more globalized marketplace. It is worth noting that Canada and now the US are in aggregate net energy exporters, meaning increases in energy costs can be a net positive for economic growth in metro areas with concentrations of energy companies.
Going beyond the macro, the impact of energy costs on real estate varies greatly by building type. Data centers, cell towers, hotels, and cold storage are especially energy-hungry property types, and ones where operational business models mean landlords may be directly exposed to energy costs. Residential sectors vary widely, depending on the age and energy efficiency of the stock, the nature of building systems and leasing conventions. For example, the bulk of the older German residential inventory is heated by gas-fired boilers providing steam heat, and tenants pay “warm rents”—meaning the landlord is responsible paying for heat. Individually metered, modern multifamily product is more insulated—literally and figuratively—from energy prices.
Investments in commercial real estate sectors with net lease structures under which tenants pay energy bills directly, such as office and logistics, may appear shielded from energy volatility. But tenants in places where energy prices have surged have become painfully aware that these costs, historically a small portion of their total expense of occupancy, can suddenly become a significant burden. In our European portfolio, we have for the first time received requests from tenants to help lower their energy bills. Indeed, working with occupiers to improve efficiency and to generate on-site energy to reduce these bills has become an important way to retain them and maximize the affordability of the net rents they pay.
The limitations of electrical grids are also influencing property markets. The availability (or unavailability) of power is already shaping location decisions globally for energy-consumptive uses like data centers, and can be a constraining factor on building electrification, a key step in decarbonization. Weather events can intersect with the nuances of energy supply to cause blackouts, such as occurred in Texas in February 2021 and recently in parts of China, potentially putting a premium on buildings with backup sources of power.
These are just a few of the ways that energy risks have become closely intertwined with real estate investment outcomes. We expect to be following these issues more closely in the years ahead.
US private real estate returns weakened considerably in 3Q 2022 as higher interest rates continued to have a major impact on market pricing and appraised values. This trend is expected to continue in the remainder of 2022 and into the opening quarters of 2023. This is leading to a dramatic slowdown in returns from the record levels seen less than a year ago.
Returns in the third quarter showed negative appreciation, with total returns remaining positive for both the NPI and ODCE. The slowdown in returns was most significant for industrial, with apartments delivering the highest returns. Looking ahead, the dominant theme in sector performance is expected to be the under-performance of offices.
This note provides details on the third quarter performance of the NPI and ODCE indices, summarizes the outlook for future returns, and provides some information regarding insights from the first release of data related to the new NCREIF subtypes.
Highlights from the 3Q data releases include:
London ranks as Europe’s leading city for projected real-estate occupier demand for the sixth year running in the latest annual edition of the European Cities Growth Index (“ECGI”), published by LaSalle Investment Management (“LaSalle”), the global real estate investment manager. Following closely behind, Paris retains its position as one the “Big Two” European cities owing to its position as one of Europe’s key innovation and technology hubs.
While London retains its top position, its ECGI score worsened compared to last year, due to pressures on GDP growth. In 2022, the ECGI score worsened for 57 cities across Europe, the highest number since the Great Financial Crisis.
Polarization between London and UK regional cities also continued to widen in this year’s index.
Conversely, German cities proved to be less volatile in economic crisis and complementary of each other, with four German cities making it into the index’s top 20.
More broadly, since the ECGI’s inception in 2000, only London, Paris and Munich have consistently ranked in the top 10. Moreover, Amsterdam’s inclusion in the list this year comes due to the city’s human capital and employment growth prospects which remain exceptionally strong.
Petra Blazkova, Head of Research & Strategy, Core & Core-Plus Capital, Europe at LaSalle said: “This year’s findings come amidst significant turbulent macroeconomic headwinds for European markets. Despite their rankings and strong fundamentals, several top European cities will continue to face challenges in the coming months.
“That is why this year’s findings and the metrics tracked in the ECGI provide a valuable tool in assessing occupier demand and prospects for real-estate markets as investors look to the property sector for stability amidst a worsening global financial landscape.”
Uwe Rempis, Managing Director and Fund Manager of LaSalle E-REGI, added: “Amidst a challenging market backdrop, real estate remains a critical asset class for investors. Our research shows that whilst many cities across Europe were recovering from the pandemic last year, markets now face twin economic and geopolitical challenges, making it imperative for investors to build a diversified portfolio of assets underpinned by long-term resilience.”
About LaSalle Investment Management
LaSalle Investment Management is one of the world’s leading real estate investment managers. On a global basis, we manage approximately $82 billion of assets in private equity, debt and public real estate investments as of Q2 2022. The firm sponsors a complete range of investment vehicles including open- and closed-end funds, separate accounts and indirect investments. Our diverse client base includes public and private pension funds, insurance companies, governments, corporations, endowments and private individuals from across the globe. For more information please visit www.lasalle.com and LinkedIn.
NOTE: This information discussed above is based on the market analysis and expectations of LaSalle and should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding LaSalle funds or any issuer or security in particular. The information presented herein is for illustrative and educational purposes and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy in any jurisdiction where prohibited by law or where contrary to local law or regulation. Any such offer to invest, if made, will only be made to certain qualified investors by means of a private placement memorandum or applicable offering document and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations. Past performance is not indicative of future results, nor should any statements herein be construed as a prediction or guarantee of future results.
Heightened geopolitical risk, persistent high inflation, and a possible recession will place European real estate under acute pressure in H2 2022. However, the asset class is expected to continue to provide longer-term stability for core investors via carefully curated portfolios, as well as offering new opportunity for investors seeking value-add returns – according to the mid-year 2022 edition of the Investment Strategy Annual (“ISA”), the report published by global real estate investment manager LaSalle Investment Management (“LaSalle”).
Europe is facing a macroeconomic environment rendered fragile by supply chain issues, a hot war on the region’s periphery and a squeeze on consumers’ disposable incomes. As a result, LaSalle expects real estate investors to adopt a much more cautious approach in the second half of 2022. However, while inflationary pressures have surged, and interest rates have increased earlier and more quickly than expected, real estate assets can act as a hedge against inflation in cases where landlords have pricing power. Fundamentally, this will manifest for investors with the best assets in the right locations, where supply-demand imbalances underpin rental growth.
Furthermore, in an uncertain environment, investors seeking higher returns can expect to benefit from dislocation and opportunities to repurpose assets. Off-market or value-add opportunities could potentially offset the effect of rising operating expenses, construction costs and interest rates, either through building-specific renovation or repositioning to achieve occupancy improvement or rental uplift.
Long-term resilience will be underpinned by careful stock selection. Although European real estate markets have been impacted by global headwinds, pockets of opportunity persist for investors across each sector.
Retail rebound postponed
In retail, the post-Covid recovery has been shaken by the impact of inflation on consumer discretionary spending power. Bricks-and-mortar retail warehouses have, however, remained resilient due to the non-discretionary nature of underlying demand for grocery anchors and their convenience offer. But fundamental challenges for European shopping centres and high-street retail is expected to persist, despite destination shopping continuing to remain an integral part of the retail experience in the long term. We remain optimistic on the outlook for outlet centres, which are set to benefit from increasing consumer frugality.
Office sector ‘trifurcation’
As with retail, the office sector is experiencing occupier and investor needs varying greatly by the quality of asset and micro location. Experientially rich buildings in prime locations that meet sustainability standards and benefit from high-quality amenities will continue to attract demand. In addition, with the pathway to Net Zero Carbon in mind, the age and quality of existing stock in European markets presents an opportunity to create the offices of the future, particularly through refurbishment. However, there is a growing range of older stock which is likely to be stranded and should be sold at – or at times even below – current valuation before liquidity dries up.
Logistics demand story remains intact
Logistics has not been immune to recent market shocks and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. A slowdown in take-up by major occupiers marks a change from many years of continued expansion. However, LaSalle believes that the sector remains in a robust position to grow in the coming months. European logistics properties recorded the highest demand for new space ever in H1 2022, driven by continuous e-commerce expansion, as well as just-in-case inventories and the nearshoring of some manufacturing activity. As a result, vacancy rates are at historical lows, and we remain confident of future prospects for European logistics rental growth.
Living strategies’ prospects at risk of divergence
The living sectors remain underpinneD by strong demand drivers including robust household formation, growth in key cities, an ageing population, increasing mobility and a structural undersupply across Europe. However, potential home buyers may tilt toward renting, owing to the rising cost of debt. For the more niche living sub-sectors, such as student housing and senior housing, investors will need to be ahead of the curve to take advantage of attractive pricing.
Finding value across the yield spectrum
With the European landscape evolving quickly, assessing the prospect for various sectors requires consideration of assets’ pricing yield levels and income growth potential.
LaSalle’s framework finds that for low-yield sectors with excellent fundamentals, like logistics, prime low-carbon offices in key cities and unregulated residential, valuations will hinge on the potential for and relative magnitude of future rental growth and an upward shift in yields. In low-yielding sectors where inflation cannot be offset by rental growth, caution must be exercised until markets stabilise.
Although higher-yielding sectors with challenged fundamentals are intuitively those in which value may be identifiable, recent concerns around economic growth have made their impact felt. The nascent retail recovery, for instance, is at risk from inflationary pressure on real incomes, while capex-intensive strategies to renovate buildings are affected by rising construction costs. Meanwhile, sectors with relatively higher yields and stronger net operating income growth potential – namely alternative living sectors, such as student accommodation or senior living – continue to remain attractive.
Brian Klinksiek, Head of European Research and Global Portfolio Strategies at LaSalle, said: “The past six months have seen macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical risk affect the global economic outlook. European investors should therefore exercise caution in the coming months until market valuations and asset pricing stabilise. But despite this, real estate will remain an anchor as other asset classes struggle, and investors look for predictability. Underpinned by the long-term resilience of the asset class, careful portfolio construction across the key sectors of European real estate can continue to deliver the benefits of diversification, stability and long-term income growth for investors.”
Jacques Gordon, Global Head of Research and Strategy at LaSalle, added: “Real estate generally provided shelter during the waves of volatility that swept through the securities markets in the first half of the year. In the second half, we foresee different dynamics unfolding. The big change has been the sharp rise in inflation in Western countries and a “regime shift” from highly accommodative to tightening monetary policies by several central banks. Many world events simultaneously contributed to this inflection point including: the re-opening of economies after COVID-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, trade wars, and government stimulus spending. Although these pressures were building in 2021, there is no escaping the fact that the financial and commodity markets shifted sharply in the first half of 2022. Our guidance for investors to seek inflation protection in real estate is a focus-theme of our mid-year update.”
About LaSalle Investment Management
LaSalle Investment Management is one of the world’s leading real estate investment managers. On a global basis, we manage approximately $82 billion of assets in private equity, debt and public real estate investments as of Q2 2022. The firm sponsors a complete range of investment vehicles including open- and closed-end funds, separate accounts and indirect investments. Our diverse client base includes public and private pension funds, insurance companies, governments, corporations, endowments and private individuals from across the globe. For more information please visit www.lasalle.com and LinkedIn.
NOTE: This information discussed above is based on the market analysis and expectations of LaSalle and should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding LaSalle funds or any issuer or security in particular. The information presented herein is for illustrative and educational purposes and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy in any jurisdiction where prohibited by law or where contrary to local law or regulation. Any such offer to invest, if made, will only be made to certain qualified investors by means of a private placement memorandum or applicable offering document and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations. Past performance is not indicative of future results, nor should any statements herein be construed as a prediction or guarantee of future results.
Market direction and economic outlooks have shifted since the start of 2022, with elevated inflation, slowing economic growth, and higher interest rates impacting the real estate market. According to LaSalle’s 2022 Mid-Year Investment Strategy Annual (“ISA”), the overall market shifts are causing real estate investors to re-visit earlier strategies as they understand and react to higher inflation, the Fed’s and the Bank of Canada’s rapid interest rate increases to combat it, and global geopolitical and economic upheaval.
LaSalle clients can view the full report at: www.lasalle.com/research-and-insights/isa-2020
In North America, the impacts of inflation and rising rates on real estate are nuanced, and require an understanding of each sector’s fundamentals, which the report explores. Coming into 2022, LaSalle Research & Strategy noted that the pandemic and its ensuing economic ripple effects had accelerated pre-pandemic trends, widening the gap between favored and non-favored property types. The mid-year report shows these trends are continuing as investors gravitate to favored property types with strong underlying fundamentals. Looking ahead, there is uncertainty in the market, but it appears as though the favored property types are well-positioned to withstand a potential economic slowdown.
Jacques Gordon, Global Head of Research and Strategy at LaSalle, said: “Real estate generally provided shelter during the waves of volatility that swept through the securities markets in the first half of the year. In the second half, we foresee different dynamics unfolding. The big change has been the sharp rise in inflation in Western countries and a “regime shift” from highly accommodative to tightening monetary policies by several central banks. Many world events simultaneously contributed to this inflection point including: the re-opening of economies after COVID-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, trade wars, and government stimulus spending. Although these pressures were building in 2021, there is no escaping the fact that the financial and commodity markets shifted sharply in the first half of 2022. Our guidance for investors to seek inflation protection in real estate is a focus-theme of our mid-year update.”
Select 2022 Mid-Year ISA findings for North America include:
Rich Kleinman, Americas Co-CIO and Head of US Research & Strategy at LaSalle, said, “While it remains to be seen how inflation and interest rates will evolve in the second half of the year, it is our view that many property types are well-positioned to support investor goals in the months ahead, and that real estate exposure should play a productive role in investors’ portfolios. Experience in recent downturns is also helping investors and lenders navigate the uncertainty, which should bode well for the industry as a whole.”
Chris Langstaff, Head of Research and Strategy for Canada at LaSalle, said, “Canada is historically a stable market, and it appears that while many of the same headwinds apply, fundamentals remain strong and transactions in many property types are moving forward.”
About LaSalle Investment Management
LaSalle Investment Management is one of the world’s leading real estate investment managers. On a global basis, we manage approximately $82 billion of assets in private equity, debt and public real estate investments as of Q2 2022. The firm sponsors a complete range of investment vehicles including open- and closed-end funds, separate accounts and indirect investments. Our diverse client base includes public and private pension funds, insurance companies, governments, corporations, endowments and private individuals from across the globe. For more information please visit www.lasalle.com and LinkedIn.
NOTE: This information discussed above is based on the market analysis and expectations of LaSalle and should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding LaSalle funds or any issuer or security in particular. The information presented herein is for illustrative and educational purposes and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy in any jurisdiction where prohibited by law or where contrary to local law or regulation. Any such offer to invest, if made, will only be made to certain qualified investors by means of a private placement memorandum or applicable offering document and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations. Past performance is not indicative of future results, nor should any statements herein be construed as a prediction or guarantee of future results.
The transition from acute to chronic stress
Three months after the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, the fighting and destruction continues. Our March macro deck focused on the ensuing volatility of equity markets, consumer prices and energy costs. In June, there is no sign of the conflict abating, volatility in the capital markets remains high, and energy costs continue to edge upward. As the situation in Ukraine transforms from an acute conflict into a chronic state of affairs, it joins a string of other global stress points that remain ongoing and without closure. Among them are: COVID-19, rising inflation, supply-chain blockages, climate change, and geo-political tensions that exist far beyond Eastern Europe.
The progression from acute to chronic has another positive aspect. The transition allows investors to underwrite assets with the new risks accounted for.
The trade links between the world and the conflict zone in Ukraine are relatively small in aggregate terms. However, when combined with COVID-related snags and new sanctions on Russian exports, these blockages become severe all across Europe and beyond. Critical commodities such as energy, grains, and specific materials with direct implications for real estate (such as sheet metal and sprinklers used in warehouse buildings) are all affected. This contributes to higher levels of inflation in Europe and around the world. The macro deck shows that medium- and long-term inflation expectations remain subdued (pages 7,8,10). But, this comforting view does not alleviate the stress on major economies and construction pipelines in the short term.
Chronic inflation risk will likely be mitigated by real estate’s ability to work as a partial inflation hedge, although this ability is uneven across markets and sectors. This is because real estate has performed best as an inflation hedge when landlords have pricing power to push market rents. Today, this pricing power is in place for many property types favoured by investors. Moreover, this inflation hedging performs best when rising utility costs can be passed through to tenants via “triple net” leases, rental indexation and shorter lease terms. Inflation also contributes to higher construction costs, which means higher replacement costs, extended construction periods and slowdown of development pipelines. In the past, this has supported resilient values for standing assets during periods of elevated inflation. There are no guarantees that this resilience will occur, but the pieces are in place for a strong inflation hedge effect again.
From an investor’s perspective, geo-political tensions would appear to represent a chronic malady of the post-globalization era. Examples of authoritarianism, geopolitical disputes, populism, and nationalism can be found across the world. Important measures to watch are: geopolitical risk (page 3), the health of democracy (page 13) and real estate transparency. According to EIU’s Democracy Index 2022, the scores have been falling in many countries, due to pandemic restrictions that meant many countries struggled to balance public health with personal freedom. On the bright side, JLL and LaSalle’s soon-to-be released Global Real Estate Transparency Index shows marked improvements in three categories: sustainability reporting, proptech adoption, and data tracking of alternative property types. Rising transparency may not counter all the negative effects of falling democracy; but data availability and strong property rights have historically underpinned the free movement of capital to real estate.
The progression from acute to chronic has another positive aspect. The transition allows investors to underwrite assets with the new risks accounted for. During the acute stage, investment decision-making can become paralyzed. In the chronic stage, investors can begin to make longer-term risk adjustments that anticipate the long-term trajectory of the situation.
A panel discussion at MIPIM 2022 with the Urban Land Institute and PwC
LaSalle’s Head of European Research and Global Portfolio Strategies Brian Klinksiek discusses emerging trends in real estate at MIPIM 2020: rising inflation, risk-off investor sentiment and the changing energy mix in light of the climate crisis.
The transition from pandemic to endemic
On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic.
As the pandemic enters its third year, there is a growing consensus that COVID-19 variants are likely here to stay. The world will need to adapt to this endemic phase as new, milder variants are likely to continue to emerge. The decline in the number of reported new cases worldwide and the accelerated vaccination efforts have boosted public confidence. In February, Denmark became the first European Union member state to lift its COVID-19 measures. Other European countries and the United States have also eased restrictions. Last week, Ursula von der Leyen (the European Commission President) and Dr. Anthony Fauci (the US infectious disease expert) both declared that the acute phase of the pandemic phase may be over — at least for now.
As the pandemic enters its third year, there is a growing consensus that COVID-19 variants are likely here to stay. The world will need to adapt to this endemic phase as new, milder variants are likely to continue to emerge.
Similarly, many countries in the Asia Pacific region are also transitioning to living with COVID-19. The Asia Pacific region has been relatively successful in keeping the coronavirus at bay over the last two years. As a result, some countries in the region, like China, were able to restart their economies relatively quickly and limit the economic impact of the pandemic. However, the emergence of the highly contagious Omicron variant has pushed governments in the region to re-impose strict measures to give their healthcare system time to recalibrate and set the stage for living with COVID-19. While many countries in the Asia Pacific region are moving towards living with COVID-19, China has maintained a zero-COVID policy. Since March 2022, the Chinese government re-introduced mass PCR testing and lockdowns in “high risk” neighborhoods of several Chinese cities to curb the Omicron variant outbreak. In April 2022, the IMF and other economists gave China a modest downgrade on its growth outlook, although these revised estimates remain higher than any major European or North American economy. On April 28th, President Xi made a solid commitment to increase infrastructure spending to counter slowing growth. In addition, the People’s Bank of China’s has re-committed to easing monetary policies. These efforts are expected to offset some negative impacts from the zero-COVID policy. We expect the recovery of occupier markets in China to be delayed, but not detoured.
Australia, Singapore, and South Korea are among the leading countries in the Asia Pacific region that are making the transition to living with COVID-19, helped by their stabilizing infection rates, and rapid vaccination/booster rollout. As of the end of April 2022, Australia, Singapore, and South Korea have eased nearly all COVID-19 safety measures and re-opened their borders to fully-vaccinated foreign visitors without the need for quarantine. Japan is also moving toward living with COVID-19, albeit at a slower pace than Australia, Singapore, and South Korea, after its quasi-state of emergency was lifted on March 21, 2022.
The relaxation of public health measures and the transition to living with COVID-19 have been highly beneficial for real estate demand. In the Asia Pacific region, the relaxation of social distancing measures and the strong willingness to return to offices has supported the recovery of office demand, especially in countries leading the transition from pandemic to endemic. In this month’s deck we track work from home expectations around the world (see p.3). Office markets like the Sydney CBD and Seoul saw vacancy rate improvements since the height of the pandemic, while other office markets, such as the Singapore CBD, had a positive net effective rent growth. Although rents in the Tokyo Central office market continued to decline in the first quarter of 2022 due to the quasi-state of emergency, the average vacancy rate in the Tokyo Central office market remained the lowest among major office markets in the Asia Pacific region. Major office markets across Europe show a similar recovery, although North American office markets still lag and the recovery in the largest US office markets is tepid at best.
Looking ahead, the transition from the pandemic to the endemic stage is expected to continue to support the recovery in real estate demand. However, other macro forces are now taking center stage as Covid retreats. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rising inflation, and interest rate hikes could cast a shadow on the recovery. Therefore, as shown in this month’s deck, the pace of improving real estate fundamentals varies greatly in cities around the world. Investors will need to pay close attention to these cross currents when underwriting new investments and adjusting portfolios.
The pandemic gave us time to reconsider our lives, our work, our relationships with families, friends, neighbors, and co-workers. It also fundamentally changed how we interact with technology and with our surroundings – in both the natural and built environments. For real estate investors, the pandemic rocked the foundation of the asset class. Yet, as our Mid-Year Update reveals, real estate has generally survived intact, and many markets are thriving in novel ways. Finally, the pandemic raised awareness for the possibilities for creating societal benefits through investment in low-carbon assets and in healthy, diverse communities.
In the second chapter of the Mid-Year Update, we review the huge sectoral shifts we first reported in “The Future of…” series six months ago. Then, we revise and update this analysis with insights from the last several months of “The Great Re-opening” and add our forward-looking views for the rest of the year and beyond.
In the third chapter, we trace how “The Great Re-opening” continues to play out in each region. Overall, the re-emergence of leasing activity, and a sharp upturn in capital market transactions have brought a strong sense of optimism to real estate investors at the midway point in 2021. Values are reaching new highs in the favored sectors. Transaction activity in out-of-favor sectors is beginning to show solid support for values reasonably close to pre-pandemic levels, wherever asset-level and market occupancy have both held up. In fact, the biggest challenge for deploying capital is that so much other money is trying to find a home in real estate – in effect picking up the plot from the pre-pandemic years. The fourth chapter summarizes the asset-class perspective and looks at the question of how real estate performs in a rising inflation or rising interest rate environment, even though inflationary conditions are far from universal in the markets where we are most active. Finally, we highlight the importance of real-time data analytics to track the re-opening process around the world.
Last December, we foresaw surging demand for warehouse and residential space, a record amount of capital unleashed, and an acceleration of investor interest in alternative sectors once COVID was contained. All three of these predicted trends have kicked into high gear, especially in countries where vaccine deployment or “return to office” levels have been high.
Nevertheless, just as some people survived the pandemic, but continue to experience lingering symptoms, parts of the real estate universe will continue to suffer from long-COVID. For every property sector or specific location with robust demand, there is another sector facing serious headwinds and existential questions. The pandemic accelerated technology trends in virtually every aspect of our lives—remote working, virtual meetings, tele-health, distance learning, and the deepening of e-commerce. Finally, the pandemic accelerated the adoption of ESG policies by investors and by occupiers of real estate, a move that has many implications for how LaSalle invests in and operates its real estate holdings going forward.
ARTICLE KEY FINDINGS:
This month’s highlights:
Each year LaSalle’s research and strategy team estimates the size of the income-producing real estate universe throughout the world, by country, and by segment. 2020 was a turbulent year as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and this is reflected in our latest estimates.
For the last three years, at LaSalle’s client seminars, we would try to envision the way that the current cycle might end. In the case of Australia, China and South Korea, this was a real stretch of the imagination, since the economic expansions in these countries were all longer than 25 years. In the US and Canada, as well as in much of Western Europe, an uninterrupted growth cycle lasted ten years, dating back to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). A few European countries (Poland and Slovakia) survived the GFC without going into a recession at all, while other G-20 countries (including Japan, France, Italy and Spain) flirted with mild recessions several times over the last ten years. Nevertheless, our collective experiences through previous cycles in the prior 30 years conditioned us to be looking for the signs of the next downturn.
We came up with a series of fairy tale metaphors: The three bears who ended the Goldilocks slumber party and The Boy Who Cried Wolf. Grizzly Bears stood for geo-political crises. Polar Bears represented too-tight central bank policies. Honey Bears represented over-reliance on fiscal stimulus and unsustainable deficits. The shepherd boy in the “wolf” story reminded us that eventually a wolf shows up–you and your flock need to be prepared. Although these stories were amusing, the topic was serious. All expansions throughout human history eventually come to an end and investors need to be prepared. The economist Josef Schumpeter coined the phrase “creative destruction” to remind us that downturns also play a cleansing role that leaves an economy well-positioned for the next expansion. We firmly believe that this could happen with the COVID-19 crisis.
Now, in the year 2020, we have a live example of an unexpected and severe threat to human life, prosperity, and investment portfolios. When our offices shut and business travel halted, we all had a mass education in how pandemics work. Many of us have become daily consumers of COVID-19 case and mortality data. As real estate investment managers, our jobs have quickly pivoted. We must figure out the appropriate actions to take to defend the income-generating power of the properties we invest in. At the same time, we also have the fiduciary responsibility to look around the corner and to develop plans to go back on offense in the second half of 2020 or in 2021 on behalf of the clients whose assets we are entrusted with.
We have already begun this forward-looking task for the Mid-Year update to LaSalle’s ISA. This is not easy. It took noted economic historian Adam Tooze eight years to research and write Crashed, which documented “The First Crisis of a Global Age” – the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Now, just two years after Tooze’s book was published, we have the second crisis of the global age to contend with. Using the Tooze timeline, it could take until 2028 for academics to figure out exactly what COVID-19 means for the global economy. In the meantime, it is our intention to get started now, which is exactly what you will find in our mid-Year update.
We hope that readers will find our look into the future of retail, office and logistics properties to be helpful as we recalibrate what to expect from real estate portfolios in the years ahead. We welcome and encourage your responses and comments on our analysis.
The pandemic has simultaneously accelerated and interrupted these trends. Some assets and strategies amplify the effects of COVID-19, while others are much more insulated. In the coming year, investors should prepare for the COVID endgame.
Mastering the simultaneous need for fast/intuitive and slow/careful thinking becomes an important skill to develop in the speeding-up world of real estate. We review techniques to help investors determine portfolio objectives. We present our outlook for the property types and countries that are the most attractive. We share our best investment ideas.
April 21, 2020 update
In our report on the impact of COVID-19 on North American real estate markets, we describe our approach to forecasting growth, outline several scenarios to consider, provide an update on capital markets signals, and predict expected relative impacts by tenant industry, property type, and geography.
ECONOMIC IMPACT
CAPITAL MARKETS IMPACT
REAL ESTATE IMPACT
Thus far in 2019, political headlines have dominated our investment committee discussions and research reports. Yet national economies, capital markets and property markets all continue to be relatively impervious to the geo-political noise. It’s as though businesses, consumers and investors are all wearing sound-canceling headphones.
As the second quarter closes, momentum has shifted downward. The triggers for “Slowbalisation” include aging societies, the rise of nationalism, and trade disruption. Yet, as our monthly macro decks have shown, the capital markets generally remain strong. Stock market indices have bounced back after taking losses when the U.S.-China trade wars escalated on May 10th. Debt is cheap and plentiful. Credit spreads are not gapping out anywhere. While we identify several problematic industries and potential ripple effects from trade interruptions, the general momentum in property markets is positive.
Political and structural uncertainty has kept interest rates low on sovereign debt. One fifth of all government bonds produce zero or negative interest rates. German bonds have hit a record low, negative yield in June. Investors remain starved for yield and real estate is one place they can still expect to earn positive dividends. At this stage of the property pricing cycle, we know that there are real estate sectors, like weaker shopping centers or disconnected office buildings, that already are, or soon will be, in serious financial trouble. Yet, price discovery can take several years as owners avoid selling and memorializing any losses. In the meantime, banks will still lend money to owners who contemplate property makeovers, not all of which will be entirely successful.
As the year has unfolded, the space between real estate’s winners and losers is getting wider, as we predicted it would. Investors are putting record-high valuations on logistics properties all over the world, while investors shy away from retail properties and older offices that lack strong urban or suburban networks. The office sector has been propped up by co-working absorption and momentum in life sciences, healthcare and technology; but the costs of leasing to many tech tenants is high. The amenities they demand are expensive. Rental residential markets are generally faring well in many cities, but they are beset by new policy initiatives that may hurt their values in the future.
We maintain our recommendation for investors to pursue both “low beta” and “positive alpha” strategies. The core strategies will withstand volatility in other asset classes best. A “positive alpha” strategy, takes carefully calibrated risks and gets rewarded for doing so. As volatility rises and global growth begins to slow, income stability plays an important part in an investment portfolio. The second goal (positive Alpha) seeks specific assets and sectors within real estate capable of contributing to out-performance relative to the steady erosion of core property indices in many countries.
Two documents are included in this update: The Mid-Year ISA Update Report, and the July 2019 Mid-Year Macro Deck, which includes a summary of our much-requested report “The Investable Universe”.
Private real estate in Canada has generated attractive absolute and relative returns over short, medium and long time horizons and it is expected to continue to do so over the long term.
This backdrop is favourable to both core and value-add investing strategies. LaSalle published a report on core real estate investing (Investing in Canadian Real Estate, January 2017) and in this paper we turn our attention to value-add investing. This report starts with an overview of the benefits of investing in Canadian real estate, followed by value-add strategies that are attractive in the current environment.
Mastering the simultaneous need for fast/intuitive and slow/careful thinking becomes an important skill to develop in the speeding-up world of real estate, in a slowing-down economy. We review techniques to help investors determine portfolio objectives. We present our outlook for the property types and countries that are the most attractive. We share our best investment ideas.
Our macro outlook for 2020 indicates that the global economy will be slowing, which means that rent growth, leasing and other drivers of real estate income could downshift to a lower gear. Yet, slow growth means that interest rates could also stay low and contribute to elevated asset valuations.
